Did Jokowi Win the Election or Did Fauzi Throw It Away?

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Did Jokowi Win the Election or Did Fauzi Throw It Away?
Yohanes Sulaiman | September 21, 2012



A poster of Jokowi in the fire victims refugee camp in Karet Tengsin area. (JG Photo/Afriadi Hikmal)

Based on quick-count results, Joko Widodo, the mayor of Solo, seems to have defeated incumbent Jakarta Governor Fauzi Bowo with what could be a significant margin in Thursday’s runoff vote. 

While it cannot be denied that Jokowi’s rock-star status as Mr. Fix-It created massive euphoria and played a major role in his victory, Fauzi (Foke) and the people in his camp made a lot of missteps that contributed to Jokowi’s victory. Fauzi’s campaign could actually become a case study of what not to do in an election. 

There was plenty of blame to go around in Foke’s electoral loss. Three people, however, were disproportionately responsible for the result: Rhoma Irama, Nachrowi Ramli and Foke himself. 

Rhoma, the dangdut legend, single-handedly damaged Foke’s re-election prospects shortly after the first round of voting by declaring that Muslims should only vote for fellow Muslims, and insinuating that Jokowi’s mother was not a Muslim. These thoughtless statements, especially when it was revealed that Jokowi’s mother was in fact a devout Muslim, caused so much outrage that they set the tone for the remainder of the campaign. 

Thanks to the artist’s “foot-in-mouth” moment, Foke wasn’t able to go on the offensive to make a strong case that he was more experienced than Jokowi in managing Jakarta’s affairs. 

Instead, he had to spend precious time defending himself because people were accusing him of turning a blind eye to his supporter’s race- and religion-related statements. 

Worse yet, the undecided voters felt alienated, and Jokowi’s supporters were outraged enough to become even more enthusiastic over the election. 

Foke’s campaign team failed miserably in damage control, partly because of Rhoma’s blunders. 

Had Foke’s team distanced itself from Rhoma, this would have alienated them from their core supporters, the religiously devout, and less-educated people that made up the bulk of Foke’s voters. 

Had his team decided to not do anything, however, it would have alienated the urban, highly-educated, Internet-savvy middle-to-upper class supporters, and especially the prickly Chinese minorities who are a significant voting bloc in Jakarta. 

As a result, the race was seen as being between the establishment figure who would use any means possible — including inciting racial and religious hatred, to score cheap political points, and the grass-roots, anti-establishment figure and his ethnic Chinese running mate Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, or Ahok, who would transcend the racial and religious divisions while hoping to create a new Jakarta. 

Foke might have thought that Rhoma’s blunders happened so early that time would allow the wounds would heal, leaving him time to take the swing voters — especially the Chinese — away from Jokowi and Ahok. Almost all of the ethnically Chinese voters threw their support behind Jokowi and Ahok in the first round of the election but Foke was hoping that he could turn the tide and attract some of them. In fact, last Sunday, Foke visited several Buddhist temples and promised his support in the establishment of a Chinatown if re-elected. 

During a cringe-worthy moment in the second gubernatorial candidate debate, however, Foke’s efforts went down the drain. 

Nachrowi Ramli, or Nara, Foke’s running mate, through an insensitive racial joke managed to alienate the Chinese community for good. This thoughtless comment was on top of his already-lackluster performances in debates, even though Foke himself actually performed quite well. 

With Internet users in uproar over Nara’s comments, Foke’s performance and, importantly, Jokowi’s missteps in the debate, were largely overlooked and ignored. 

To be fair to Foke, his tenure as the governor of Jakarta is not as disastrous as many of his critics suggest. As a bureaucrat with years of experience, Foke had insider knowledge of what was going on in government. He understood the problems facing Jakarta, and he actually tried to do something to fix them. 

His aloofness toward journalists and his temper, however, worked against him. Many of his achievements were being largely ignored by the press as a result. 

Coupled with the blunders of Rhoma and that of his running mate, this meant that Foke just wasn’t in a good enough position to make a strong case for a second tenure. 

It wasn’t so much Jokowi’s win, but rather Foke’s loss. 

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earlofmansandwich

11:46am Sep 21, 2012

Foke's core supporters: "the religiously devout, and less-educated people." Why the need for a comma? Isn't it obvious that 'less-educated people' are the ones more likely to believe in a god or gods?

Pelan2

12:37pm Sep 21, 2012

That Foke could get, according to the quick count, around 47% of the votes, indeed shows that there are a lot of ignorant, "un-educated" people in Jakarta, if the article is anything to go by..

blightyboy

12:39pm Sep 21, 2012

The real result, without the dirty tricks and religious intervention, would have no-doubt seen Bowo loosing by an even greater number. I doubt he would have garnered even 30% of the vote without all the 'arrangements' he made with various organisations.

You dont need to be a lecturer at the Indonesian Defense University, sorry Yohanes Sulaiman, to figure out why Fauzi Bowo lost: he did a lousy job over these past years, putting himself, his pocket and a jumped-up opinion of himself, above trying to improve Jakarta and life for its citizens. In short he lost because he was incompetent, and corrupt.

cleoan

12:42pm Sep 21, 2012

earl, i hope by "god or gods" u mean dogma.

quite a discriminating generalization u got there.

quas

12:56pm Sep 21, 2012

Did Jokowi Win the Election or Did Fauzi Throw It Away?

Who cares? It's same difference anyway.

It's like playing chess, you win not by playing your best, but by getting your opponent to make blunders.

Yohanes-Sulaiman

1:59pm Sep 21, 2012

@Pelan2: I won't go that far to suggest that every single people who voted for Foke was ignorant and uneducated. Some voted for him because they thought he did deliver, such as by providing healthcare to the poor. Some prefer to vote for "the devil that they know" than uncertainty under Jokowi. Still, there were also many people as ignorant as Rhoma Irama and his ilks who voted for him. Actually Saiful Mujani in www.saifulmujani.com gives a nice snapshot of the voters in the first round of election. Whether the data is 100% accurate is up to interpretation, but it is, to be frank, very interesting.

@blightyboy: I am not sure what irks you here that you resort to an unprovoked personal attack on my intelligence and professional affiliation. I am aware of his corruption and arrogance, and dirty tricks that his affiliates pulled. I agree that Fauzi did a lousy job, but there were many that disagreed that they were wiling to vote for him in the first round.

Yohanes-Sulaiman

2:06pm Sep 21, 2012

Anyway, the point of this article is to stress that playing with race and religion in the end does not help the campaign, but instead damaging it, distracting the campaign from its main message, and thus Foke ended up losing. It is mostly self-inflicting wounds that ended up killing his chances.

dial

4:55pm Sep 21, 2012

Mr Yohanes, you may as well ignore blightboy cant seem to accept plenty of locals are much smarter and brighter than expat/s. The best he could do was attacking to cover up weaknesses.would be good if you can write few pieces about that NGO bills. I support smarter Indonesians and less you guys depend on these expats

zerodiversity

4:56pm Sep 21, 2012

Personally, I believe that Fauzi lost because more and more people realized that he did not do his job period. He has failed as governor and also the budget allocated for the city has been subjected to mismanagement and corruption. He has the support of the 2 biggest parties in Indonesia i.e. Democrat and Golkar and he can't even gain enough votes to win a second round. That alone should already tell us that Jakarta people or even the whole country is no longer as 'ignorant' as most so-called 'elites' believed.

Valkyrie

5:50pm Sep 21, 2012

Yohanes....

Please allow me to express my opinion on what Blighty said.

I do not believe he was demeaning you and or your affiliation. I am fond of telling people who come with obvious statements with this local saying...."nenek nenek pun tahu" (even old ladies know)

Foke loss to a better opponent. His running mate did not help at all!

I am sure "blighty" will convey his impressions on your remarks.

Have a good weekend.

TheSplodge

7:18pm Sep 21, 2012

I think we should have a sweepstake on how long it will be before fuzzy and his idiot running mate see the inside of a prison cell. I'll start with 6 months, but I expect this is just wishful thinking on my behalf.

Budtan

7:57pm Sep 21, 2012

The biggest mistake that Fauzi made is not doing bold things to improve jakarta's condition. People are so fed up by traffic jam for instance, yet he claimed on the debate that although the busway corridor only added by 1, the length of track improved. What logic was he using? Alice in wonderland??? Meanwhile people observed that both jokowi and ahok did great job in their hometown. Being nominated as one of world's best mayor is not an easy achievement I believe. So, in this case the answer of your headline is yes and yes

Valkyrie

7:59pm Sep 21, 2012

TheSplodge...

Predicating on the Bank Century fiasco, I feel it would take quite a while. Perhaps a couple of years or so?

You going to keep tabs on all participants? Thanks and have a nice weekend.

Prabayar

8:22pm Sep 21, 2012

No one cares about traffic to win an election or doing businesses.,no idea how that few of you could see traffic is an issue to do transactions.very laughable logic and train of thought. Maybe you guys are doers know nothing beyond your own nose.

Valkyrie

6:48am Sep 22, 2012

Prabayar...

I am not laughing.

Your public awareness requires attention.

On the subject of noses. If that piece of organ was not on your face, I doubt you would ever realize you have one.

Yohanes-Sulaiman

6:56am Sep 22, 2012

@Dial: Thank you for your comments. I think, though, expats are still an important part of Indonesia civil community that their positive contributions are always welcomed, regardless of Indonesia's condition.

@Zerodiversity and valk: Yes, I agree that Foke is not the best governor out there. Yes, "nenek2 pun tahu" that he lost against a better opponent. Personally I also don't like him and would love to see him out. Still, I also have to give him some credits that's due for him, otherwise that's an injustice.

I think, that in his five years, he did achieve something -- even though many would argue (correctly) that what he did was simply continuing what his predecessor had begun, e.g. healthcare and education -- and I think that should also count as an accomplishment, that at least he didn't wreck everything.

He, however, could not make that case, because he was totally distracted by all these issues on SARA, thanks to Rhoma Irama and his terrible running mate.

 

He could have spin his meager accomplishment, and he tried already, using those booklets that tout his accomplishment, but information in those booklets were overshadowed by the SARA campaign that his supporters used, and thus discredited his entire campaign. As an incumbent, that's actually what you have to stress, not being distracted by racial/religious craps.

I do think that Jokowi himself made a couple of blunders, especially in the Sunday MetroTV debate, e.g. why he wanted to become governor of Jakarta. That's a terrible answer he made and Foke could not exploit it because Nara wrecked it.

That's what I am stressing in this article. His campaign was a disaster, because he was surrounded by incompetents and blabbermouths that think that the best way to win was by using SARA, and thus cannot run a more effective campaign.

@Prabayar: traffic is also important because people experience it daily, would need someone to blame, and that made him very vulnerable -- even though maybe Fauzi has nothing to do with it.

@Budtan: I agree with what you wrote. He did things, though mostly on the level that most people don't observe, e.g. education and health.

Frankly I can't believe that I have to defend Foke to get my point across -- that's his team's job and that means his campaign team was really bad, that they had to have someone who actually doesn't like Foke to do it. As I mentioned in my comments above though, you might want to look www.saifulmujani.com and check his data. Very interesting that lower class and non-car owners tends to vote for him. Yes, there might be pressures from his bureaucrats to the poor people (and I am aware that there were A LOT of pressures from above), but that alone can't explain Saiful Mujani's data.

readd

7:55am Sep 22, 2012

@earlofmansandwich : somehow you sounded more like this Rhoma Irama character. Why sandwhiched your mind in such a generalized trait?

forgetyourself

10:24am Sep 22, 2012

" ...core supporters, the religiously devout, and less-educated people that made up the bulk of Foke’s voters"

A nice way to sum them up.

Jakarta is now ready for smarter leadership and hopefully Jokowi can deliver. Of course, Jakartans themselves will have to change too, to bring on a new era.

jetset24

10:38pm Sep 22, 2012

The incumbent Governor believed that the majority of Muslim faith would stick to his religious tactics. Actually, the majority is fed with religious issues being used as a political game. The truth in the matter that their strategy back fired. This is a learning lesson that Indonesians for the most part are moderates. They will use their logic to choose a competent leader over past numerous uncertainties by the incumbent governor.

Yohanes-Sulaiman

7:33am Sep 24, 2012

@jetset24: Yes, yes, yes. Foke and his team forgot that in two-way race, the bigots would have already been on his side and would stay there anyway because they could not stomach Jokowi and Ahok. So, he needed to attract the moderate-independents, and they were all mostly concerned about economy, not divisive racial and religious issues. Thus by not addressing the idiotic comments made by Rhoma Irama and Nara, they simply lost the majority of independent voters.

Remember, five years ago, Foke won against the PKS because of the fear of religious fundamentalism. Could not believe that he allowed himself to be painted that way due to his surrogates' idiocy.

Pelan2

10:21am Sep 24, 2012

Jakarta voters seem to indicate that they are tired of all the party heads who are on their "sell by date" already and party (failed) policies.. New, free thinking, savvy leaders seems to be making their way up the ladder. Wonder when Golkar will dump Ical as their Presidential Candidate??..

How Leaders Can Fuel Terrorism

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How Leaders Can Fuel Terrorism
Yohanes Sulaiman | September 12, 2012

There is good news and bad news about the latest rash of failed bomb-making attempts by the misguided wannabe-jihadists in Indonesia. 

The good news is that their failure means that the government, through good intelligence and increased cooperation with other countries, has managed to disrupt international terror networks. 

Many of the terrorists that caused bloodbaths in Indonesia in the early 2000s, such as the one in Bali, had good connections with the international jihadist network, notably Al Qaeda, that was cultivated in the 1980s, when many of their colleagues or superiors spent years fighting the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. Thanks to the strong connections, they were adequately trained in bomb-making and terror attacks by instructors in Mindanao, in the Southern Philippines, Pakistan or Afghanistan. That made them uniquely skilled in blowing up their targets and causing many casualties. 

The impact of successful training can be devastating. The Americans experienced it firsthand in Afghanistan and Iraq, where improvised explosive devices were used to cause many casualties. The use of IEDs is apparently so successful in Syria that Syrian soldiers reportedly don’t dare to venture too far from their bases, where tanks and other vehicles are vulnerable to attack. The Syrian rebels seem to have learned the art of bomb-making from Islamists that honed their skills in Iraq. 

The fact that the past few years have seen many aspiring terrorists fail in causing mass casualties, or managed to blow themselves up while making bombs, suggests that the international connections have started to dry up. Terrorist networks are not easy to build. There are many difficulties, notably the problem of trust. Who could guarantee that a new recruit is not a mole planted by the government in order to undermine the network? Or, having spent some years in prison, there are always possibilities that a former prisoner would either be closely watched by the police or has become an informant. 

With each successful crackdown on a terrorist network, it is becoming harder and harder for the network itself to maintain itself. This strain showed up in the recent explosions, or premeditated attacks like the ones in Solo. The police, with little difficulty, are managing to crack down on the entire network. 

Many of these people are simply lacking the proper training to handle and manufacture explosive devices, or more importantly, to create a strong organization that could launch deadlier attacks. 

While they can learn the art of bomb-making from the Internet, it is very different from the hands-on training that experienced instructors provided. Building a strong and deadly terrorist network requires a lot of experience, especially in the art of strategy, notably on the question of how and when to attack, to maximize the impact. 

The bad news about the latest rash of failed attempts, however, is that they also suggested that many of the wannabe jihadists are homegrown. It is easy to blame globalization, growing inequality, or the declining respect and adherence to Pancasila as the state ideology that cements the nation together, as the main culprits of the radicalization of our youth. That would be incorrect. It is the fault of irresponsible religious and political elites. 

Religious Affairs Minister Suryadharma Ali labeled the Shia as a deviant sect. By doing this, Suryadharma provided justification for any attacks on the Shia community, while absolving the attackers from blame, since they are attacking the guilty party anyway. 

Similarly, sermons denouncing Buddhists for their attack on the Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar — even though the majority of Buddhists in the world had nothing to do with it — provided a misguided justification for attacks on Buddhists everywhere. 

Not surprisingly, the wannabe terrorists who managed to blow themselves up last Saturday in Depok, West Java, were planning to target a Buddhist center in Jakarta to avenge the Rohingya Muslims. 

What is the right way to handle the rising radicalism in Indonesia? Aside from a strong deradicalization program, the government keeping the pressure up, and surveillance on any suspected terrorist networks, the best answer would be to tell the religious and political elites to stop denouncing others for short-term political gain. By providing justification for further radicalization of society, these people — our leaders — are sacrificing the unity of Indonesia on the altar of selfish personal interests. 

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zerodiversity

10:17am Sep 12, 2012

@ Pak Yohannes

The main problem is Indonesia does not have a real leader who places the country welfare in front of his own personal benefits and ambition as well as the political party benefits. Just take a look at how many ministers are allegedly involved in corruption and how many are really doing their jobs. Not to mention the large number of House representatives being absent from meeting most of the time and you have a government that does not work. A government that does not place the country welfare first will result in many people being dissatisfied and easily recruited into terrorism.

Valkyrie

11:06am Sep 12, 2012

Yohannes...

The people will 'listen' when their stomachs are filled and that they can honestly afford three square meals a day. their children would receive proper education and finally reliable medical services for the poor and needy. Short of any of the above, this country will be susceptible to radical influence.

Radicalism thrives on poverty too! It's frightening when we are told that almost 109 million Indonesians are deprived of clean water.

On another thread, I mentioned about the 23 trillion that was allocated for 2012 to cover travels.

The way to the hearts of the citizenry is through their stomachs.

jchay

11:34am Sep 12, 2012

The continuing problem is we let ourselves being put into different boxes (majority, minority, ahmadiya, sunni, shia, christian, chinese, papuans etc etc), and it is used as justification of discrimination or attacks.

When we start accepting ourselves as one: the people of Indonesia, what left is only the case of some criminals attacking or killing the people of Indonesia (regardless religions or race etc), and it is the responsibility of the Government of Indonesia to assure safety and protection for all Indonesian people.

devine

3:49pm Sep 12, 2012

Bpk Yohannes, although I believe the Ministry of Religious Affairs should not even exist it would alternatively be a good to at least extend the Minister with several Ministers, one of each religion. It is a known fact that the current Minister is called the Minister of Islamic affairs... so there should be a balance, either a Minister that equally respects ALL religions or as said above several ministers that should be allowed to speak out only after a common consent is found among them (vote i.e.)...

and jchay: yes! 100% correct, that would be the real solution!

DrDez

6:41am Sep 13, 2012

Some Indonesian politicians (in the name of Sunni Islam) fuel the hatred and therefore support and encourage acts of sectarian violence and even terrorism - and often as we see mob murder - with impunity from prosecution

In most developed nations they would be jailed or at least stripped of office. Ali is one such man - but there are hundreds more

Yesterday we read about attacks on the West because of some movie being offensive to Islam - well here and now many who are acting under the guise of Islam are offensive to humanity ... We in RI are on a slippery slope and our leaders via greed and/or religious motivation have allowed, nay supported their 'brothers' often openly - it is disgraceful - it is a crime

JC - but whilst a good number of Sunni Muslims push a violent agenda what the rest of us accept matters not one bit

Yohanes-Sulaiman

7:35am Sep 13, 2012

Thank you so much for your kind comments.

@Zerodiversity: It is sadly the case. Most of the so-called representatives and officials are more interested in lining up their pockets than to actually serve. Truly a recipe for a failed state.

@Valkyrie: Poverty matters, but not really in this case. There's a study a couple years ago that actually stated that majority of terrorists had middle-class background or even rich people -- one reason, I suspect, is that these people actually have time and opportunity to actually read and think about this issue -- poor people are too much focused on their stomach and to feed their family. In Indonesia, the "middle-class" is a disputed term, so we might have a nice debate on this, but from what I observe from our suspects here, at least they have the ability not thinking how to feed their wives and offspring, meaning that they actually have some resources available, and this not that poor after all.

Yohanes-Sulaiman

7:39am Sep 13, 2012

@Jchay: I blame that on the short-sighted selfish officials that zerodiversity already condemned. If you don't have the ability to govern and can't make a case that you are a good official, the best way to still come ahead is to condemn others as heretics or kafir or whatever it is. It is politics of hate for selfish interests.

@devine: You raised a good point, but I don't think that's workable. Most importantly: the quality of the ministers. How could you expect that the quality of these six(?) ministers are high, when the one we have here is already a trainwreck with the big cheese doing nothing but composing songs?

Yohanes-Sulaiman

8:57am Sep 13, 2012

@DrDez: As long as they only receive a slap on their wrists, these people will not learn.