Be Wary of Foreign Meddlers, Asean

I think the title here is too harsh.... There was a friendly reaction to that, which could be found in the conversation at the end of the article.


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Be Wary of Foreign Meddlers, Asean
Yohanes Sulaiman | November 23, 2012

Barack Obama’s three-day Southeast Asian trip might have been planned a while ago, but it cannot be denied that the timing was perfect.

The US president’s visit to Thailand, Myanmar, and Cambodia took place in the aftermath of his re-election victory and China’s 18th Party Congress that chose Xi Jinping as the country’s new leader. Even so, the timing reinforces the idea of a pivot that, regardless of the current turmoil in the Middle East or Europe, would focus the gaze of the United States on the Pacific region.

While many US diplomats disclaim the idea of pivot, as noted by Obama in his third debate with Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, the United States did engage in a pivot. The Pacific region will be the site of rising political and economic power in the future, and thus it is logical that the United States will invest more resources and increase its presence in the region, especially as it also considers itself a Pacific power.

China, of course, is the undeclared competitor in the region, and seen by many US allies in the region as the main threat. Obama’s trip seemed to be calibrated to warn China to temper its ambition. All the countries that he visited were located in an area vulnerable to China’s sway.

For instance, Thaksin Shinawatra, a previous Thai prime minister and brother of the incumbent, was seen as moving Thailand closer to China during his five years as leader to 2006. Myanmar used to be considered a client state of China until it gambled by breaking from China’s orbit and courting the United States. It was richly rewarded through the historic first visit of the US president to the country and much needed investment.

Cambodia, another country seen to be very close to China, was visited due to it holding the chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Obama, as well as raising the issue of human rights with Prime Minister Hun Sen, also raised concerns over the South China Sea dispute, in spite of protests from China.

Not surprisingly, the Philippines took the opportunity of having implicit support from the United States to openly challenge China by disputing Cambodia’s assertion that Southeast Asian leaders “had decided that they will not internationalize the South China Sea from now on.” Close to the end of last week’s 21st Asean Summit, the Philippines was joined by Brunei, Indonesia, Vietnam and Singapore to dispute the chairman’s draft statement that there was consensus that the South China Sea issue should not be internationalized.

China in turn went into damage control. While Xi declared China’s firmness in safeguarding its sovereignty, he also threw in some carrots, promising that China would encourage more investment in Asean countries, notably in manufacturing, commercial services and new energy. Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra also announced that China had expressed interests in buying Thai agricultural products and expanding investment in infrastructure in Thailand.

The question, however, is whether Asean and especially Indonesia can get its act together in light of undue interference from China and the United States.

It cannot be denied that Asean this year, in spite of some achievements — it managed to start negotiations to create the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the world’s largest trading bloc that will comprise more than three billion people and with a combined gross domestic product of $15 trillion — has taken quite a lot of beatings over the South China Sea issue.

Asean’s unity is in question, and will remain so due to the loose linkages that bind the grouping, making it prone to outside interference. So the association has a lot of homework to do to ensure that it remains relevant beyond economic matters.
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Contextus

8:05am Nov 24, 2012

Extra-regional powers are most welcome if their balancing efforts help to neutralize the threat of a regional or extra-regional power acting in defiance of international law like China in her geopolitical dreams about the South Chinese Sea; setting limits at an early stage is much more rewarding than appeasement.

Yohanes-Sulaiman

11:25am Nov 24, 2012

@Contextus: Of course the problem here is the diverging interests of ASEAN nations, where ASEAN is more of association of conveniences, rather than a true effort to create a united front against foreign threats. It is almost impossible to set a limit in light of the inability of Asean nations to realize that at this rate, ASEAN is on the golden brick road to nowhere.

slowburner

11:46am Nov 24, 2012

Indonesia isn't developing - it's regressing. Any decent Indonesian I've ever met lives overseas away from the blight of their homeland. And they are embarrassed to be Indonesian. Shameful Indonesia.

Yohanes-Sulaiman

12:18pm Nov 24, 2012

@slowburner: I agree, but what that has anything to do with this article?

jchay

8:23am Nov 27, 2012

How would ASEAN ever be free of interference especially from China and US, when the ASEAN countries are not confident enough in the belief that they will be stronger as one region? That's why each country will never stop flirting to China or US, trying to get extra brownie points for themselves..

thus my point is, ASEAN actually welcomes the meddlers! ;)

jojakarta

11:35am Nov 27, 2012

@slowburner. Your comment has nothing to do with this article. Yes Indonesia is regressing in a way if you are so into pakistanised indonesia, environment overexploitation, economic disparity, minority oppression and the like. I am not embarrassed but yes I do weep and lament this tragedy of ours.

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Additional Comments:

A: Hello, just read your Friday Op-ed in the JG, nice article; my main takeaway was that ASEAN needs unity to maintain relevance but I have to disagree some what that China or the US is meddling, I don't think ASEAN operates in a political-economic vacuum so outside interest in this rising region is the new normal. What do you think?

Yohanes Sulaiman:
Thanks for comment. Glad you like it. First though, the title is not mine. It is JG's editor's choice. I really need to start giving them my own title, but I suck in making catchy titles so I delegate that responsibility to them and this is one of few times that I have a facepalm moment

Then again, you are right that I neglect to include that critical paragraph that it is in the interests of both china and US to intervene in the region, putting the article in a more neutral position. Still, the take home point is the same, that as you noted that Asean really needs to get its act together lest it become more and more irrelevant.

But here's the problem that I don't include there and can't really say outloud. Asean is like that by design, to prevent interferences by its own members to each other. Indonesia is especially very adamant about that. Really problematic.

So Asean should be more united, but at the same time, all its members are dragged kicking and screaming toward that. It is like you want a casino but at the same time, you don't want troubles associated with it.

A: All good points; yeah, seems that one of the inherent weakness of ASEAN is that certain blocks or members seek different goals from the org.
Yohanes Sulaiman:
But rather than tackling it, you end up saying that you don't neeed security guard because there's no problem And the more you repeat it, the more you think that your BS is correct. They also don't want security because that means they have to take turn guarding and nonee of them like to either guarding or being ordered to guard.  Thus you got a casino and al Capone next door, but you pretend al Capone is a dominican friar. That, I think what asean is all about

A: I like the analogy! :)

The Silver Lining of a Failed Asean Summit

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The Silver Lining of a Failed Asean Summit
Yohanes Sulaiman | July 21, 2012

In an Asean first, the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations last week were unable to issue the usual joint communique at the end of their summit. Irreconcilable differences regarding the South China Sea, with diplomats pointing at Cambodia’s unwillingness to embarrass Beijing, were the reasons for the deadlock. 

Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa said in response: “I think it is utterly irresponsible if we cannot come up with a common statement on South China Sea. This is a time when Asean should be seen to be acting as one, when the rest of the region expects Asean to be acting as one, and that’s why it’s extremely disappointing that so far we have not been able to achieve that.” 

Marty was right to feel disappointed over Asean’s failure. This summit broke the “taboo” that regardless of the debates and acrimony within the summit, by the end of the day, every country will sit down, shake hands and issue a joint communique that papers over the differences and saves face. 

The failure to issue a joint communique this time around can be said to have torn apart the facade of Asean unity. If 10 nations cannot agree on one joint communique that is full of generalities and only mentions that the summit was also discussing the contentious issue of the Scarborough Shoal, then it remains to be seen whether Asean has the political will to push for more drastic (and most likely painful and domestically unpopular) measures that will be needed down the road in forming a stronger union. 

While the Southeast Asian nations have high hopes and plans for the future of the organization, hoping that it can help strengthen their ties and develop common interests, not unlike the European Union, the failure shows that there is still has a long way to go. It also raises another issue: when push comes to shove, can Asean members rely on each other? 

There might just be a silver lining to this fiasco. The inability to issue joint communiques may be seen as normal for future summits. That way, summits will actually be used to bring up difficult issues and force Asean nations to face the most contentious of issues head-on. Controversial decisions may be made, with some nations agreeing and others objecting — something that under the current facade of harmony is impossible. 

The caveat, though, is that all Asean countries must have enough political will to stay together and turn Asean into a binding organization; otherwise, it faces disintegration. Therefore, the Phnom Penh summit should be used for introspection and possibly a great time to think of the future of Asean itself. 

China should also take heed. It may have won this round by using its influence to make sure that Asean chair Cambodia kept the issue of the Scarborough Shoal from the final communique. In the long term, however, China could end up losing the war to win the hearts and minds of the Asean nations. 

Should China’s actions undermine the unity of Asean, the disgruntled Southeast Asian countries might put the blame on China for wrecking the Asean project with its unwelcome interference. That won’t be good news for China’s good relationships with the majority of Southeast Asian countries and its goals in the region. 

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serenityjam

10:59pm Jul 21, 2012

Our foreign minister is correct to feel disappointed and remarked that the ASEAN's failure to issue a joint communique is 'utterly irresponsible'.

He must be referring to Cambodia (as chair and host in Phnom Penh) that acted shamelessly to refuse the call of nine other countries to make mention of the crisis at Scarborough Shoal.

ASEAN must resist aggression from a superpower. China has a hidden agenda to control the Southeast Asian region. China is trying to "rewrite" history by telling tales about its alleged proofs of ownership by showing fraudulent maps and imagined conquests of islands in the past by the naval expeditions commissioned by

its dynastic emperors.

Indonesia should be wary because China can do what it is doing to provoke the Philippines on Scarborough Shoal. I am confident that the ASEAN will be restored as one formidable economic bloc and China's intrusion in the ASEAN territorial waters will not succeed. ASEAN, unite!

maspanji

11:35pm Jul 21, 2012

Asean is a noble cause but its vision is fall short due to suspicion among its member states, namely Malaysia - Indonesia, Thailand- Cambodia, Walaysia - Singapore etc. And the only country that the Chinese to reckon with is Vietnam.

DasMonk

12:17pm Jul 22, 2012

Mr Serenityjam. I feel the post frommaspanji is correct, I would go further and say that certainly in Indonesia and Thailand the suspician of its neighbours is fueled by misplaced hateful rhetoric from those who should know better such as politicians

Regarding China's expansionist policies, this will inevietably lead to direct military conflict within the next few years, potentially months

China will aggress and the ASEAN will maintain a non retaliation stance. The president is making his customary loud noise but is devoid of any action. To analyse why we should consider the deals over the last decade whereby we have lost out as a nation, but perhaps not personally

It is with regret that the Philipines best freinds are in North America and when the blood starts to flow it will be they and not us who provide assistance

We dream of being a regional superpower but seem unwilling to take the burden it brings time and time again

Yohanes-Sulaiman

7:45pm Jul 22, 2012

Thank you for your kind comments. I never expected to receive comments on a foreign affairs piece. So glad that I was proved wrong.

I will add that the biggest problem with ASEAN is in the lack of common interests, goals, and visions, especially after the end of the Cold War. While The European Union moved from "anti-Soviet" bloc to creating a common market that could in the end balance against the US and Japan (later China), ASEAN has not really made such rethinking, other than just try to slog around hopefully everything would be all right. That's the unfortunate effect of simply creating an association without trying to strengthen it or to create a common long term interest or goal between all states in the region

Other problem is the fact that ASEAN keeps maintaining the illusion that it has nothing to do with security, while in reality, it is all about security (back then, it was created to keep the Commies out). Thus, the mismatch between the policy and reality

serenityjam

10:16pm Jul 22, 2012

@DasMonk:

Last time I heard our foreign minister Marty Natalegawa went to Manila to spearhead common statement among ASEAN member-nations in lieu of joint communique. It seems, sir, that Indonesia is doing something about China's aggression.

I am happy to hear that. Maybe, as citizens, we should support our government's foreign relations moves. I know that foreign ministers speak rhetorically but underneath those statements they mean business. There is one positive action. Am I glad that our foreign minister is leading the way.

Besides, there is no need to think of going to war. China as a bully must be pressured through world opinion. There is power in the pen. ASEAN member-nations are generally peace-loving people, are we not?

DasMonk

6:51am Jul 23, 2012

Mr Yohanes-Sulaiman

The future failure of ASEAN to remain nothing more than a club is down to several points already outlined, lack of common interest, self interest and suspician among the major listings, nationalist hatred

However convolutly it may well be the China threat that finally draws us together in the same way as the threat of war in Europe banded the nations. The EU was born from the The European Coal and Steel Community with the belief that tied national interests would avert war. It has to date succeeded.

The number one priority is to recognise the threat and as yet all I see in China buying influence and silence around the world. It bodes ill for the region because at some point it will come to conflict. Recent history shows we have sided with Ahmadijah, Gaddiffi and Assad and promoted a non intervention model. When the Chinese start firing one cannot help thinking we will side with Beijing and do nothing

As Nations Gather in Bali, Indonesia Puts Its Lack of Imagination on Display

The problem here, I think, is the lack of a coherent grand strategy of Indonesian foreign policy. SBY wants it to be "grand," but without direction?

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As Nations Gather in Bali, Indonesia Puts Its Lack of Imagination on Display
Yohanes Sulaiman | July 19, 2011

With little fanfare, the 18th Asean Regional Forum got under way in Bali this past weekend. Sadly, local coverage of the meeting is next to nonexistent.

Such a lack of attention and promotion from both the Indonesian government and the media can be attributed to the fact that neither find it to be as important as local political scandals threatening President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s popularity.

It is a shame, because the forum will be attended by key players in global security, such as the US secretary of state and the foreign affairs ministers from North Korea, South Korea, Japan and China.

In the news at least, the Japanese are taking the forum seriously. The Japan Times, The Mainichi Daily News, NHK World, Nikkei and Kyodo News have launched an English language Web site solely to provide news of this meeting. Seoul is also looking at this forum intently, as its national news outlet Yonhap reported that the South Korean foreign minister was willing to meet his North Korean counterpart during the forum.

The attendance of global luminaries and the massive attention from the international news outlets show how vital the diplomatic community finds the Southeast Asia region. Were Indonesia prepared, it could take advantage of the global spotlight to showcase its international ambition and leadership in the Asean region.

The lack of promotion from the government may simply be because it does not know what to expect from this forum, considering the intractable problems on the table — from the Cambodia-Thailand border spats that threaten Asean’s raison d’être to China’s growing influence in the region, including in the South China Sea. Not to mention the speculation that the forum may be used to jump-start the stalled negotiations on the Korean Peninsula.

The Cambodia-Thailand border spats seem not to be ending anytime soon, in spite of Yingluck Shinawatra’s victory in recent Thai elections. Even though Yingluck decisively won Thailand’s recent election and her elder brother, the fugitive former Prime Minster Thaksin Shinawatra, has a good relationship with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, she had to tread the waters carefully, lest her opponents accuse her of selling out to Cambodia.

At the same time, the South China Sea will be on everyone’s mind. The growing might of China, its swelling blue-water ambition — evidenced by the recent unveiling of its new aircraft carrier— and its perceived provocations toward Asean countries that have made claims to the Spratly and Paracel island chains will put the relevancy of Asean to the test. At this point, Asean has no common policy or structure set in place to respond to the rise of China and India. Nor does it have a plan to deal with the waning of the US’s international commitments.

While the former US defense secretary Robert Gates announced in Singapore during his visit last June that “the US defense engagement and investment in Asia was slated to grow further,” he warned NATO just a week later that “there will be dwindling appetite and patience in the US Congress — and in the American body politic writ large — to expend increasingly precious funds on behalf of nations that are apparently unwilling to devote the necessary resources or make the necessary changes to be serious and capable partners in their own defense.”

Even though such warnings were reserved for NATO, it also gave signals to other states that rely on US assistance that they have to keep “playing ball” lest the United States no longer provide military assistance due to the public resistance to continued spending of blood and money to be global policeman.
As the largest and the most populous state in Asean, Indonesia has the opportunity to rise to the occasion. Unfortunately, with the defense budget even lower than “the little red dot” city of Singapore and the likelihood that the budget will be slashed again in the near future, Indonesia’s commitment and ability to take the reins and lead regional security efforts are questionable.

Such diplomatic paralysis is deplorable and unfavorably compared to Indonesian diplomacy during Suharto’s New Order. Back in the 1980s, Indonesian foreign ministers Mochtar Kusumaatmadja and Ali Alatas directed foreign policy toward the dual objectives of ending of the Vietnamese intervention and also the civil war in Cambodia. These foreign policy objectives were pursued in spite of objections from some Asean members who were hoping that the Cambodian conflict would, in Dewi Fortuna Anwar’s words, “bleed Vietnam white.”

For Indonesia back then, what really mattered was preventing China from increasing its regional influence and, secondly, the spread of communism after the Vietnam War. While many Asean countries were not pleased with Indonesia’s initiatives, in the end its foreign policy was vindicated with the ending of the Cambodian civil war, the withdrawal of Vietnam and the expansion of Asean through the inclusion of Vietnam. At the same time, both Indonesia and China were aware of their growing importance in global affairs, which led to the rapprochements of both countries and, subsequently, the re-establishment of diplomatic relations in 1990.

Such imagination and audacity is unfortunately lacking in Indonesia’s foreign policy objective today. Instead of trying to lead Asean, to find a breakthrough to end the Cambodia-Thailand border conflict and to create a common regional response toward the rise of the influence of China and India and the withdrawal of the United States from global affairs, Indonesia seems more interested in just holding the forum. In fact, Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa was quoted as saying that he did not expect any resolution to many of these issues at the talks. To put it simply, there is no goal, no international objective to pursue.

In the end, Indonesia needs to get its groove back. It has to start acting again as the regional leader. We can start by taking a careful look at our foreign policy objectives.

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