An Eventful Year for Indonesia

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An Eventful Year for Indonesia
Yohanes Sulaiman | December 27, 2012

With the new year closing in fast, let’s take a look at some of the most important domestic events hitting headlines this past year, and how they may affect us in the next.

Strength in numbers

The labor union might have legitimate grievances in its decision to blockade the Jakarta-Cikampek toll road last January. But it also set a terrible precedent by making it clear that the best way to force the government to do whatever you want is to cause massive traffic jams. Moreover, the government’s unwillingness to crack down on law-breaking protesters gave a signal to everyone that the government would not arrest anyone as long as they have strength in numbers.

Thus, while street demonstrations are not that uncommon after the fall of the New Order, this year marked a significant increase in the number of huge demonstrations that brought the traffic to a standstill.

The problem, aside of massive economic cost from lost time and gasoline and jittery investors having second thoughts about investing in Indonesia, these huge demonstrations also had an adverse effect of essentially stressing the idea of “might makes right.” Rather than contributing to the creation of stable democratic institutions, these demonstrations make a mockery of the rule of law and proper channels for grievances — the courts and the legislature.

Of course the blame goes both ways. It could be argued that people were forced to hit the streets as the government, the court system and the parliament were notoriously unresponsive to people’s concerns about economic injustices and bad policies, undermining the people’s trust in the first place. It could also be easily argued the government was unable to communicate its policies effectively with the people, making it easy for the provocateurs to whip up public sentiment to the detriment of government policies.

Either way, the toll road blockade marked a complete collapse of public trust in the government and the government’s ineffectual response to the blockade set a bad precedent for years to come.

‘Shock therapy’

The unlikely victory of Joko Widodo and Basuki T. Purnama in the Jakarta gubernatorial election jolted both regular Indonesians and the political elite alike. Apparently a pair of candidates with good track records could beat the establishment candidates backed by the political parties and their money machines.

This campaign also marked the power of the Internet, especially social media, in Indonesian elections. A strong, enthusiastic grassroots support could provide a strong countermeasure to ugly black campaigns that tried to bring up the divisive issues of ethnicity, race and religion.

More importantly, this election also stressed the need for the candidates to maintain self-discipline to win the race. We saw how Nachrowi Ramli self-destructed on national television during the gubernatorial debate. That, in essence, gave the election away to Jokowi-Ahok, despite Fauzi Bowo’s own respectable performance in the debate.

After the election, given the public’s high expectations of the victorious pair, Jokowi-Ahok also perform remarkably well. In spite of some complaints regarding Jokowi’s predilection to travel a lot, visiting Jakarta’s kampongs, and Ahok’s anger management problem, people remain ecstatic as the two manage to show the public that they are working hard to solve Jakarta’s massive problems.

The pair also enjoyed national adoration as Indonesians were supporting their  “shock therapy” — well-deserved public humiliation of what people saw as arrogant and out-of-touch bureaucrats. Not surprisingly, the two are possibly the most popular politicians in Indonesia today, though the sentiment seems not to be shared by many of Jakarta’s local parliamentarians or bureaucrats that are on the receiving edge of the “shock therapy.”

Angelina and the Democrats

Muhammad Nazaruddin’s claims of massive corruption within the ruling Democratic Party was vindicated with the arrest and trial of Angelina Sondakh over the  long-running Southeast Asian Games athletes village bribery scandal.

After the indictment of Angelina, more and more people were implicated in the scandal, including Andi Mallarangeng, the sports and youth affairs minister, who decided to leave both the ministry and the Democratic Party early this month.

While Andi’s guilt is not certain, the indictment of so many parliamentarians and other Democrats has put the party on the defensive. Opinion polls suggest people no longer trust the party’s commitment to eradicate corruption and many will abandon it ahead of the 2014 elections.

With the electoral field wide open, there are possibilities that small parties, especially Prabowo Subianto’s Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), which already received a significant boost for backing Jokowi-Ahok, could reap the benefits, as people are looking for figures seen as decisive enough to combat massive corruption.

KPK under fire

This year is also marked by a concerted assault on the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) — by both lawmakers and the police force. First, the parliament decided to release the draft of the revised KPK law that would significantly curtail some of the KPK’s powers, notably its ability to conduct wiretaps on suspected corruptors and their accomplices and to prosecute corruptors. The draft also called for the creation of a KPK Supervisory Council, whose members were selected by the parliament itself. Many believed that the council would in the end meddle with the KPK’s affairs so much that the commission would be made irrelevant.

Later, the police, angered over a KPK investigation into the driving simulator procurement graft case, attempted to arrest Novel Baswedan, the head of the KPK’s investigation team, over an old, dubious case. When that didn’t work, the police decided to pull their investigators from the KPK, significantly weakening its ability to investigate corruption cases.

The public uproar over this case was such that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was forced to step into the fray to stress his support for the KPK. By staking his reputation on this, however, the embattled president will receive the lion’s share of the blame should the KPK end up emasculated. And that will harm his ability to influence the election to pick his successor in 2014.

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Normalaatsra

4:06pm Dec 27, 2012

And FPIxMUI are not mentioned.

Yohanes-Sulaiman

5:19pm Dec 27, 2012

...and that stupid sandal trial, etc., etc.,etc. Some of them due to the lack of space. But, the goal of the article is to identify four most important events of 2012 -- and nNothing new about MUI and FPI -- they have caused troubles for years and years already and especially the latter, the government never develops enough backbone to tackle them. Not that they are unimportant, but nothing "new" about them in 2012. That's all.

GlobalCitizen

1:12am Feb 28, 2013

FPI and MUI are nothing but organization of terrorists who promote terrorism. Period! They are hiding behind the religion while actually they tarnish the religion like hell.

Media Can Sway Public Opinion, But Not as Effectively as an Underperforming Party

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Media Can Sway Public Opinion, But Not as Effectively as an Underperforming Party
Yohanes Sulaiman | June 22, 2012

If anyone was wondering why President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono seemed frustrated in his speech during the Democratic Party convention last week, the results of a pair of recent surveys from the Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicate and the Indonesian Survey Circle should help.

Both surveys showed that the Democratic Party’s popularity was declining rapidly. The Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) noted that support for the Democratic Party had dropped from 13.7 percent in January to 11.3 percent, while the SSS put the Democratic Party’s support at 10.7 percent.

Both surveys ominously predicted that the Democratic Party would become nothing more than another middle-tier party, should the trend continue.

Previously, Yudhoyono acknowledged that the Democratic Party’s popularity had taken a major hit. However, he blamed media bias for this turmoil, declaring that the Democratic Party was much less corrupt than its rivals and yet it received the biggest scrutiny, which in turn dragged the popularity of the party through the mud.

After the surveys were released, Democratic Party officials, notably Nurhayati Ali Assegaf, the recently-appointed chairwoman of the Democratic faction in the legislature, questioned the methodology of the surveys and wondered if the surveys were biased.

Yudhoyono and the Democratic officials might have a case that the media and survey methodologies are biased — but given the Democratic Party is being sullied by the ongoing Muhammad Nazaruddin corruption scandal, it cannot be denied that the party has been helping fuel the negative perceptions.

TVOne and MetroTV, the most influential stations in Indonesia, are owned by the leaders of Golkar and the National Democrat (NasDem) Party, respectively. Neither station is shy about advocating the political views of its owners.

They have the ability to shape public opinion on certain subjects, and their coverage in many cases can be considered hostile to the Democrats and Yudhoyono. MetroTV pretty much enjoys rubbing salt in the wounds of the Democrats by repeating the Democratic Party’s mantra, “Say No to Corruption” on its coverage on the ongoing Nazaruddin corruption scandal.

But even with that influence, neither station has been able to propel their respective owners to the front of the presidential candidacy pack.

The SSS and LSI listed Prabowo Subianto and Megawati Sukarnoputri as the two top vote-getters, respectively, should the presidential election be held today. Surya Paloh (NasDem) and Aburizal Bakrie (Golkar) trail. The Democratic Party could make a strong case that the polling organizations are biased, since it is possible that they were paid by either Prabowo, Megawati or both, in order to provide favorable results.

Pollsters have admitted, privately, that there are occasionally incentives to create favorable results in order to either maintain a business relationship with a candidate, or to perform as a public relations tool. Those polling organizations, however, generally fold after the elections because their predictions strayed too far from the actual results.

On the other hand, the polling results from the LSI and SSS are generally close to the actual numbers. While there are some differences in the results, they are often the result of a variation in sampling methods that generally fall within the margin of error.

There are some external factors influencing the results, notably the fact that the presidential election is still some time away and most of the prospective candidates aren’t that well known. Prabowo and Megawati, however, have been on the ballot several times already.

These surveys were useful for the insight they brought to the table and they essentially confirm each other’s findings. The LSI bluntly stated that Yudhoyono’s passivity hurt the Democratic Party’s prospects. The SSS survey stressed that “decisiveness” was the most popular attribute among voters, meaning that Yudhoyono’s inability to rein in the extremist groups such as the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) and to safeguard human rights and the freedom to worship also took its toll.

This could be seen in the results of both surveys, where the biggest beneficiaries of the Democratic Party’s collapse in public support are Megawati’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and Golkar, not the religious parties.

The media is important and able to sway public opinion but there is a limit to how much influence it has. It seems more likely that Yudhoyono and the Democratic Party have themselves to blame for these abysmal results.

The media and the surveyors would not have been in a position to do much harm to the president and the Democrats had Yudhoyono acted with vigor and determination in rooting out corruption and cleaning up his party, while acting decisively to stamp out extremist groups and religious intolerance in the country.

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zerodiversity

1:02pm Jun 22, 2012

I don't trust these surveys especially surveys that place Megawati in top two position. Megawati has not proven much as a President before and her time is over. However, you don't need experts to tell you that the Democrats reputation is free-falling. The President's indecisiveness and leadership problems have been fully exposed as well as the corrupted party members. Add in the fact that high ranking members like Anas and Andi and many others being implicated in corruption and you have a mess of a party. Don't blame the media pak SBY because your party has itself to blame.

Pelan2

1:22pm Jun 22, 2012

@zero - Self destruction seems to be the order of the day. It is indeed unbelievable that a country with roughly 240 mill people are unable to come up with a suitable presidential candidate, but instead keeps pushing forward all the useless "hasbeens" that is hoping for a second chance to make a fool of themselves again...

devine

1:44pm Jun 22, 2012

zerodiversity; correct. And if Mega would have any dignity she would not even consider running again. Bad looser, bad sample for the whole nation. But then, it's Indonesia! OppositeLand...

Pelan2

2:29pm Jun 22, 2012

@devine - careful with the word dignity - you know where we are..

From Indonesia Matters Dec 20th 2008///Megawati was not always quiet when talking to her ministers though, but was generally only roused to speech by matters such as gardening, cooking and food, and shopping, but not affairs of state. On serious issues, she tended to lose her concentration very fast, it is said./// All in a nutshell

Valkyrie

3:22pm Jun 22, 2012

My guess will be that Nasdem will reel in JK and MM. Kingmakers?

Pelan2

4:20pm Jun 22, 2012

Still going with Prabowo if he can surround himself with "clever" people. The Democrats (SBY,Anas, Andi) and Golkar (Ical) has given him enough free ammunition + Mega is largely forgotten. JK has the problem that he is not from Java, but may make a "good" president.

Valkyrie

5:22pm Jun 22, 2012

Pelan2....

Have you observed the presence of JK and MM during many of NasDem gatherings? Isn't it obvious?

I'll go with the Nasdem choice and I'll bet they'll surprise many.

zerodiversity

5:46pm Jun 22, 2012

@Pelan2

Looking at the list of people you mention makes me sad to be Indonesian because after 10-15 years, it's still the same group of people for Presidential candidates. We are approaching oligarchy not democracy. Do we really lack talent and leaders?

Yohanes-Sulaiman

6:22pm Jun 22, 2012

Thank you for your kind comments.

@Zero: I suspect Mega's popularity is due to her high name recognition. Keep in mind that majority of Indonesians (and anyone anywhere) don't follow politics too closely and thus when they are asked these questions, they will just pick the ones they are very familiar with.

I suspect once the field is more established in a year or so, Megawati's popularity will decline. Prabowo, however, could use the momentum from both survey and Jakarta election to propel himself ahead.

Nasdem is an interesting case, where to some degree it stole the votes that supposed go to both Golkar and Democratic Party. IF SP plays his cards right, like some suggested, putting JK and MM as their public faces, it could break the middling rank.

Valkyrie

6:31pm Jun 22, 2012

zero....

No need to be sad. This country is at the bottom of the pit. How deeper can it go?

Go sponsor a poor kid and give him/her a chance. A few of us are currently doing that.

Those tiny drops of water made that mighty ocean.

TalkingEid

7:18pm Jun 22, 2012

Seemingly Indonesian politics has chosen English football club management as its model - fail, and you get invited to do the same trick again.

Angelina Makes a Mockery of Justice While President and Party Look On

Four months later, in July 2012, the President again stressing that blah..blah...blah.... You know the drill.
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Angelina Makes a Mockery of Justice While President and Party Look On
Yohanes Sulaiman & Phillip Turnbull | March 07, 2012

Last week, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono tried to reiterate his supposed commitment to fighting corruption when he signed off on new punishments for graft convicts. The so-called impoverishment program would impose substantial fines upon offenders, aiming to ensure that they and their families can’t enjoy even a single rupiah of any ill-gotten wealth.

It sounds all well and good, but at this point the president’s move seems more like a last-ditch, cosmetic effort to prevent his own popularity, and that of his beleaguered Democratic Party, from tanking further.

If the public had any doubts about widespread corruption among the Democrats and the party’s general lack of commitment to cleaning up the nation’s politics, following due process and helping the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) do its job, those doubts must have evaporated with graft suspect Angelina Sondakh’s recent appearance at the House of Representatives.

Despite previous assurances by the Democratic Party politician and her superiors that she would stand aside while investigations were under way, Angelina has done anything but. Most disturbingly, she had the gall to sit in on a legislative session.

In a speech on Feb. 5, after Angelina was named a suspect, Yudhoyono said all party members who had been named suspects by the KPK must step down.

The next day, party official Didi Irawadi Syamsudin promised that the Democrats would “soon” issue the decree suspending Angelina, saying, “While the investigation is under way, we will suspend her from all posts. It’s just a matter of administrative process before we do so officially.”

Angelina did lose her position as deputy secretary general of the party. Yet on Feb. 14, she remained seated in the legislature. Adding insult to injury, she was moved from her position on House Commission X on youth and sports affairs to Commission III on legal affairs.

Such a thoughtless move, presented to the public as nothing more than a regular rotation, was not surprisingly met with an uproar. KPK head Abraham Samad said he would not attend any Commission III meetings if Angelina was present.

Yudhoyono predictably blew his top and berated party chairman Anas Urbaningrum and House faction leader Jafar Hafsah for such a politically incompetent act.

The party later backtracked, with Saan Mustopa, the secretary of the Democrats in the House, claiming the transfer was only “planned” even though in several interviews Jafar had used the word “already.” Angelina ended up on Commission VIII, which deals with religious affairs.

Of course, as usual, there was no discussion at all on either the president’s order that KPK suspects resign or Didi’s promise that Angelina would soon be suspended from all her posts.

No doubt we will be told the paperwork hasn’t been processed, that it’s only the labyrinths of committees and bureaucratic processes and signatures to be got that is holding this up. Hence Angelina’s right to attend legislative sessions at the House, even as she is questioned in court for graft.

Even Angelina seems to think things have returned to normal. Although she should step down immediately and await the court’s pleasure, she called a press conference to ask reporters to respect her silence on the matters before the court.

She has already been advised both judicially and publicly to tell the truth and to understand the seriousness of perjury. She has also given her word that she would accept a suspension. Instead, she not only turned up at the House for business as usual but she also asked the press to get off her back.

Angelina may have gained a temporary immunity from justice, bestowed upon her by those who have not processed her suspension papers or were impressed by her performance in front of the camera. But the steady hands of time are ticking away, and like her namesake in Gilbert and Sullivan’s classic comic opera “Trial by Jury,” Angelina definitely and unmistakably will soon hear those fateful words breaking the silence she craves: “Angelina, come thou into court.”

There, the former maxim of the law, “qui tacet consentire videtur” (“he who keeps silent is taken to consent”) — or, in other words, those who keep silent cannot be found guilty — no longer applies.

Yet Angelina does not appear to understand the gravity of her situation. And she is not alone in this.

Recently, House Speaker Marzuki Alie went on the record as saying, “I think there is something wrong with the way we work.”

We presume the irony of his statement was lost on him. But it’s not lost on the public, which is fed up with the stonewalling and obfuscation of politicians and their faceless advisers who treat the citizens of Indonesia with patronizing condescension. It simply won’t do. The electorate is becoming more and more politically astute, informed and outraged.

The way things were done in the past had one intention only — leaving people with a sense of soothed feelings and a curious sense of being unable to recall exactly what explanation was given. To politicians wedded to the past and its mentalities — whatever their age — that attitude will prove their ruin, especially when the public no longer trusts the “bapaks” after so many public relations blunders, lies and court sentences.

Angelina can expect to be given every benefit of law and justice; this is her right. In the meantime, however, she must do everything in her power to cooperate transparently with the processes in motion and in a spirit of justice rather than playing fast and loose with the letter of the law, which has somehow allowed her to sit in the House at the same time she is under serious investigation for robbing the constituents it is her job and duty to serve.

Angelina should stand aside and the president and his party should ensure that she does. If not, the developing sense of contempt for the ruling Democratic Party will only become more entrenched.

For the integrity of the country’s political system, not to mention the survival of whatever credibility it still holds, the Democratic Party must see to it that corruption does not go unpunished.

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Comello

1:25pm Mar 7, 2012

'...qui tacet consentire videtur — or, in other words, those who keep silent cannot be found guilty...'

I guess you meant the opposite: by keeping silent, the presumption is that the charges against her are correct, ergo she is guilty.

Or: nolo contendere...


serenityjam

2:02pm Mar 7, 2012

Perhaps, our legislators need to be reminded about courtesy to the office of the president and as titular head of the dominant political party. Angelina Sondakh could have been prevented from embarrassing the president and the Democratic Party if she was told earlier before her "unwanted presence".

What were the party officers thinking? Angelina, on her own to preserve whatever decency is still left with her, could have gained some sympathy regardless of the accusations against her if she simply disappears for a while like taking an official leave of absence. That is the polite thing to do in this situation. Oh, well, does she know this? I don't think so.

exbrit

2:18pm Mar 7, 2012

Why doesn't the KPK just arrest her as they promised to do and and end this farce? They are claiming paperwork delays also

devine

2:31pm Mar 7, 2012

In my opinion she acts like a small child; all the others did it too so I can do it too... why they only go after me when everybody does the same...

The worst thing is, that they never ever even get slightly embarresed...

padt

3:10pm Mar 7, 2012

Comello - in effect what you are saying is true because we played with the phrase. Angelina asked the reporters to allow her to keep silent - but eventually she will not be able to remain silent as she will be required to speak up in court.

There - the old maxim of the law is no longer, in this day and age - permitted as a defence.

It was famously - and correctly used of course - in the infamous trial of Sir Thomas More. More took great care not to speak against the King's claims. He insisted that if he said nothing he could not be found guilty. At his trail, saying nothing could not legally be interprested as opposition to the Kings unlawful claims which contradicted both Magna Carta and his coronation oath: on the contrary, More's silence could only be interprested as indicating consent to those claims.

But of course, he was not being tried for that reason. The move against him was vindictively personal and to scare anyone else who dared act with any integrity.

DrDez

3:53pm Mar 7, 2012

exB - baffles me also

devine

11:30pm Mar 7, 2012

Noted that NONE of them "up there" (DPR) immediately gets arrested? Another privilige! As a matter in fact they should be the FIRST to be arrested!

DrDez; maybe she wore halfe a mini skirk and made everybody confused?

Asoegenie

7:59am Mar 8, 2012

Angelina's "immunity" is due to the fact that she has the highest, most powerful Connections in this country. I believe she was paid an enormous amount of money just to keep silent.

Yohanes-Sulaiman

6:06pm Mar 8, 2012

@all: Thank you for your comments. On exbrit and devine's comments, all I can do in reply is to quote George Orwell's Animal Farm, in which he wrote "ALL ANIMALS ARE EQUAL BUT SOME ANIMALS ARE MORE EQUAL THAN OTHERS."

That, sadly, is the condition of our country at this point, where justice is swift for someone who supposedly steal a pair of sandals, but it grinds ever so slowly for someone who steals billions of rupiahs.

Valkyrie

6:42pm Mar 8, 2012

I continue to feel that Angie is not the primary target. KPK wants the bogeyman.

KPK has a prima facie case of corruption to place Angie in the slam. There has to be a good reason for not doing so.

devine

7:22pm Mar 8, 2012

Val; why cant they go after the bogeyman if the lock away Angelina? I just dont like this special treatment for some and no compromise for others... that is just not how it should work. I think it is not good for the reputation of KPK either...

padt

8:01pm Mar 8, 2012

I am having a gin and tonic and listening to Victoria de Los Angeles singing 'Un Bel Di Vedremo" (One Fine Day) from Madame Butterfly by the maestro Puccini.

I never understood this aria until it dawned on me that, after repeated listening, the words of the aria (positive) went in opposite direction the the music(negative).

Butterfly sings the lyrics that her husband loves her and will return - the music says he does not love you and he will not return.

Indonesian politics.

This music is played out every day in Indonesia.

My pembanto loves Puccini. And Beethoven. And Mozart.

"Why dont we have this music in our culture?" she asks. You have Malls and glamourous people and politicians, I tell her.

She loves Mozart's Requieum and Verdi's Requiem. "Can I have the CD played at my funeral, she asks?"

No. We come from different worlds.But I will play them in our house.

She seems to have some idea that what you do in this world affects what happens after. I tell her - its about love.

padt

8:05pm Mar 8, 2012

Yohanes sums it up. I would say it differently. Its all about the bull that is in the room that no one will mention and that a fish rots from its head down.

facepalm

8:32pm Mar 8, 2012

@padt: you sound like a genuinely lovely person. Enjoy that G&T.

andriparjoko

9:24pm Mar 8, 2012

I thought it' s a nice show. How can I subscribe for this drama? please anyone tells me and also how much it takes cost.

I would to know that.

Only A burn Child dread the fire. and all at nerve They're wo**e more than kids.