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Showing posts with label Coalition. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Coalition. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Must Try Harder: Yudhoyono’s School Report Shows Much Room to Improve

The idea for this article came during the lunch meeting with Ben Otto. We were discussing about my articles and where it should go, when he mentioned the idea that the Jakarta Globe was going to do some articles on "2011." I volunteered to write an article on evaluating SBY's performance, followed a week after, by an article on the most important events of 2011.

Not surprisingly, this became the longest article I had written for the Globe at approximately 1400s words.
While was really tempting to say that SBY's presidency was a failure, I had to be objective in this case. I had to evaluate the presidency carefully, paying attention to which ones he could not have done anything had he wanted to and which ones were the missing opportunity.

Thus, I could not put in the hijacking of Indonesian freighter by the Somalian pirates (though it was very tempting to write all the government's missteps that exacerbated the situation) and many more blunders. Still, it was an interesting mind exercise.

Of all the comments, I found Christianto Wibisono's to be the most amusing. He said that no wonder I was not a popular teacher - I was harsher than Pak Fitch in grading Mr. SBY.

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Must Try Harder: Yudhoyono’s School Report Shows Much Room to Improve
Yohanes Sulaiman | December 20, 2011

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono speaking at the Democratic Party's 10th anniversary event on Thursday.
(Rumgapres Photo)
With a few days to go before the new year, this is a good time to evaluate the performance of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in 2011.

Politics: 2011 was another year of wasted opportunities. With the opposition in disarray due to multiple scandals and misconduct and lawmakers’ popularity at a new low, Yudhoyono could have shown himself to be the only adult in town by being an effective administrator pushing for economic, law enforcement and political reforms.

Instead he was distracted by multiple scandals involving his own political party.

While Yudhoyono remains the most popular politician in Indonesia, Golkar has been working hard behind the scenes to ensure that it wins regional elections and ultimately the national election in 2014. At this juncture, Aburizal Bakrie may succeed in his bid to become the next president thanks to his ability to maintain discipline within Golkar. Grade: C.

Stability: Yudhoyono has a mixed record in maintaining the stability of the country. On one hand, he did a great job in tackling and managing the impact of bombings, preventing them from creating a new panic. In the case of Maluku, so far he has managed to prevent the situation there from degenerating further into an ethno-religious conflict.

Papua remains in turmoil, with the government unable to do much to curb corruption and to address local grievances. The government’s heavy-handed approach in dealing with discontent will hurt in the long run. Grade: B.

Economy: The economy has grown nicely this year, with every macroeconomic indicator in the black.

There are also signs of trouble, however, building on the horizon. Most of the nation’s growth so far has been driven by domestic consumption and international demand for our coal, gas and various other natural resources, which may decline drastically should China enter a period of recession.

There are concerns that all the economic gains do not trickle down to the middle and lower class, creating more inequality.

At the same time, some respected economists, such as Christianto Wibisono, have argued that growth of the Indonesian economy was solely driven by the private sector, with the government doing nothing but dragging the growth rate down due to massive red tape, conflicting regulations between the local and national levels and corruption.

Moreover, some short-sighted policies did nothing but sour the climate for investment further. For instance, Communication Minister Tifatul Sembiring’s threat to shut down Research In Motion’s operation in Indonesia and Churchill Mining’s troubles in East Kalimantan will spook foreign investors, wary that their investment will be politicized or simply taken away due to regulatory loopholes and corruption.

On the plus side, Dahlan Iskan’s appointment as the minister for state enterprises seems to be a great choice so far. Grade: B-.

Governance: Yudhoyono has a dysfunctional cabinet, with ministers unwilling to be the bearer of bad news to the president and unwilling to coordinate with each other. He succumbed to his political calculations and instead of streamlining the decision-making process, he created several positions of deputy ministers that further bloated the bureaucracy. Grade: D.

Corruption: Despite his campaign promises, corruption remains rampant within the bureaucracy and has had direct implications on people’s well-being and our national reputation, such as the collapsing bridges and graft surrounding the housing for athletes at the Southeast Asian Games.

Unchecked attempts to emasculate the to Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK), the Gayus show, Nazaruddin and Nunun’s adventures abroad (that only ended after public outcry), then Justice and Human Rights Minister Patrialis Akbar’s decision to reduce the sentences of graft convicts, and the failure of many regional courts to punish those who commit graft are just the very top of this wreck that did nothing but undermine the public’s trust in the seriousness of the government to clean house. Grade: F.

Human Rights and Religious Freedom: While the government always stresses its commitments in defending human rights and religious freedoms, events prove otherwise.

Religious extremists are still running around with implicit clearance from the law enforcement apparatus. The failure of the government to defend the Ahmadiyah, let alone to persecute their attackers, did nothing but to sully Indonesia’s name abroad. Worse, the Bogor mayor’s decision to close down the GKI Yasmin Church, citing dubious excuses and in spite of the Supreme Court’s decision to uphold the church’s position, made further mockery of the rule of law. Grade: D.

Military Reform: The military remains committed to transforming itself into a modern, professional organization.

Though the progress is slow, and misconduct remains rampant, the improvement has been steady. The government has also helped the reform with its commitment to slowly increasing the budget for arms procurement and in improving the military’s ties with the United States. Grade: A.

Law Enforcement: Corruption remains rampant within Indonesian law enforcement, extending from the police corps and the office of prosecutor to the judiciary system.

The Constitutional Court is the only relatively bright spot in an otherwise rotten system. While there are efforts to clean things up, most prosecutions are politically influenced or driven by popular outrage. Grade: D.

Foreign Policy: While there were many foreign policy accomplishments this year with Indonesia as the chair of Asean, the country also had its share of missteps. For instance, even though the Asean Summit was a huge international event, there was little coverage in Indonesia, with the government unable to rouse public enthusiasm for the event. In addition, various governmental missteps, such as its inability to protect its workers from unjustified capital punishment abroad put a blemish on the government’s record.

On the plus side, the government handled the border crisis decently, keeping the situation from spiraling out of control. Grade: C.

Final Evaluation: 2011 was a year of several missed opportunities, with Yudhoyono unable to develop a coherent long-term strategy for Indonesia. The promised reforms were nonexistent, due to the lack of decisiveness. One hopes that the government will show a little backbone next year, especially in tackling the issue of corruption. Overall Grade: C-.


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carolinetanjaya
1:42pm Dec 20, 2011
Although I cannot say I disagree with the rest of the evaluation, some of the examples mentioned under the corruption heading are not thoroughly accurate or balanced. Some of the collapsing bridges were procured and built before SBY assume the presidency,like the Kukar bridge and the new Justice and the Human Rights minister ordered for a stricter procedure to reduce the sentence of the graft convicts. Furthermore we have to appreciate the fact that Nazaruddin and Nunun were indeed caught and brought back to Indonesia for trial. However, I agree that there is still much room for improvement.




Yohanes-Sulaiman
9:03pm Dec 20, 2011
@Carolinetanjaya: Thank you for your kind comments. While you are right that some of the collapsing bridges were built before his era, had he been through in cracking down on corruption, the local government would have been unable to skim the money used for the regular maintenance. We could even see a parade of the responsible parties on trial. Yet, a few weeks after the collapsed bridge, seems everything is back to the doldrums, that nobody got dragged kicking and screaming to the court to face the music.

On the new Justice and Human Rights minister: I am grading him on his yearly performance, and like it or not, Patrialis could not do anything without his acquiesence, so Patrialis Akbar's blunders still stop at his desk.

On Naz and Nunun: Yeah, they got arrested after popular outrage and much embarassment. That's not a plus in my estimation.


DrDez
7:05am Dec 21, 2011
Yohanes
More or less agree, I would have ranked a score lower on some issues re human rights & religious freedoms since he has been ineffective & has avoided the issues whenever religion has been a central theme.. Minor disagreement
However where I do disagree significantly is related to Military Reform. The bill (2008?) requiring the TNI to withdraw from SOE's has been all but ignored and in many ways that ties in with your corruption score - I would score MF no better than a C.

Caroline - Many of the maintenance contracts are controlled by a Kalla owned Group - they are paid extortionate amounts to and I quote 'check a few nuts and bolts'

Yohanes-Sulaiman
6:02pm Dec 21, 2011
@Dr. Dez: On religious freedom and human rights, I don't think he is THAT failed -- he had a bad score thanks to all these messes from GKI Yamin, Ahmadiyah, and now, that killings of the farmers in Lampung. Yet, we have to acknowledge that this is far from a police state, and he is guilty of being passive -- thus the grade D.

On military reform: we can agree to disagree here. Yeah, the military is still in a mess, but from my dealing with them on a constant basis, it seems to me that the military itself is geniunely interested in reforming itself -- especially among the rank and file. True that they are still defending their vested interests and have a very narrow understanding of what their roles supposed to be and how to deal with e.g. Papua, but as a whole, the institution is truly moving forward, which is far cry to the rest of the nation.

Still, I may be biased here.


RuleBritannia
6:32pm Dec 21, 2011
@Yohanes: Concur re. your grades. However, in the words of Edmund Burke, "all that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing" so, the crime of passivity is perhaps one of the biggest crimes of all for a ruling president.


Yohanes-Sulaiman
6:47pm Dec 21, 2011
@RuleBrittannia: I agree, but well, I could not say he was passive so this was a year of failure. Though I think Bung Hatta would have put it succinctly by quoting Schiller, his favourite poet: "The century has given birth to a time of greatness, But the great moment finds man small."


RuleBritannia
7:11pm Dec 21, 2011
@Yohanes: Indeed . . And I'm sure those celebrating Christmas in a parking lot, together with many others, will be praying for John 4:23 'Cometh the hour, cometh the man.' as their New Year Wish!!


DrDez
9:26pm Dec 21, 2011
The real crime is that SBY had a whole nation behind him - he had not only the elite but a popular vote to make real change... Almost no politician in history has had such a luxury - JFK, Churchill, Ghandi in the modern era perhaps - but the simple truth is he has blown it.. No debate, no more analysis, no more what if's... His next few years will be spent preparing the legacy (his protection)... It is abject failure if viewed from a national perspective as simple as that

nonredneck
10:13pm Dec 21, 2011
I 2nd caroline & Yohanes views.This comes back to political game of balances. To catch the fish,sometimes u hv to let the mud settle down OR sometimes u hv to disturb the water. To us it's easy when we see it on the news "hey u're not doing anything SBY!" but not so when we'r in tht position ourself having to deal with our own internal party, military, the imams, foreign preassure, economic etc. This reminds me of Sukarno's fragile balance of nasakom and cia. In order to attract a sizable amount of investment for further economic progress,a relative stability is required. A political strugle or worse if military & extremist-open-war is involved. These could even worsen the fragile situation. There's no quick attack solution for hundreds yr old problems,but regardless of heritage/culture/military/protests/religious,all balance will never be achieved if there is no economic prosperity. Indo can be monarcy like brunei for all I care but economic prosperity must be priotiry fr all policies

Yohanes-Sulaiman
10:19pm Dec 21, 2011
Risking myself to be seen as starry-eyed idealist, I think we need a complete revamp of the election law. We should make it that a president can only reign for 1 term of 6 years. We will have the DPR election on the second and fourth years of the presidency -- providing feedback and rebukes to the ruling party. So, instead of having those clowns to sit pretty for 5 years in the parliament, they should be judged by population every two or four years.

Otherwise, I'm afraid that the democracy can no longer be salvaged thanks to these clowns up there.

DrDez
5:16am Dec 22, 2011
Yohanes
Many (of us) have lobbied for voting reforms for years via working groups, business groups, advisory groups etc etc and what we witness time after time is that as soon as their power/prosperity is challenged the doors are firmly shut. You may recall my post about the spatial planning fiasco a few weeks ago - A typical example of exposing a deep flaw in the administration and then getting the door slammed.
NRN - I am sorry but economic prosperity at any costs is not a wise path. It is already twisted and used as the excuse for personal gain as it is and is incredibly narrow in its benefits. We are doing this/that for the nation translates to we are making a killing (literally sometimes) and don't care about the consequences

nonredneck
2:35pm Dec 22, 2011
DD: Just curious, in your business dealings, do you make money first and fix the system later, OR fix the system to perfection first then make money later? Assuming you are in the situation of the poor majority.

DrDez
4:07pm Dec 22, 2011
NRN
Born from a philosophy to make things right first time, we employ the best people we can, pay very well & use a Toyota based system. We made no money for years & then about 35 years ago we took our first major export step Toshiba. A 1000% increase in turnover in 2 yrs resulted. 40 staff to 500. We still stuck by our philosophy & it stood up well.
20 years ago we had accredn with FAA & the biz exploded again. Current CEO is my oldest grandson who we have groomed since he was 15 & hopefully he will do the family proud.
I would say we plan well and always try get the model right; knowing that it will make money
Starting pay is 1.8x min wage + FF medical cover, free canteen and travel allowance. After 1 year we offer a lot of other stuff including profit share (2010 was Rp25jt/per person)
In return we have almost zero staff turnover and almost zero defects, we run at an ebita over 30% and pay our taxes. Our biggest issues are usually from the local mosques and village chiefs

blightyboy
4:59pm Dec 22, 2011
DrDez - I can only applaud.

blightyboy
5:03pm Dec 22, 2011
nonredneck - The name you have chosen really is quite offensive.

nonredneck
5:56pm Dec 22, 2011
blightyboy: I've explained my stance on my username before on different topic. If you're not an extremist, not a sawn-off-shotgun slinger, not a fighting-pitbull breeder, not a slave owner, and not a forest burner then you are also my friend... also a non-redneck.

nonredneck
5:58pm Dec 22, 2011
DD: Your way sounds absolutely the way a business should be run, and I agree 100%. But in larger application, can this model be applied in larger scale of a nation? If it is applied though, won't this turn back to autocratic leadership style, and there will be no voting/protests to influence the direction of the company. Singapore is an example of how a state is run like a profitable enterprise, and the result is amazing! But this would also means lack of public involvement, and single party dominance over all policies. And SG policies as we know it tends to favor businesses, and economic prosperity. Only recently after the election, they change their style. So going back to economic first or system first, if for example Indo is to use your business philosophy then that would mean a strong dominant leader at the top to determine the direction of the ship, and among which social-strata can we find this kind of uncorrupted leader?

DrDez
6:27pm Dec 22, 2011
NRN its a business model not a model nation. We do things by committee and only rarely does Mathew or previously myself make a singular decision. We run works councils, Health & Safety Councils, NPI Councils so that everyone has a say – They all own what they do and they are proud of the company and we are proud of them. We all wear the same gear, eat in the same canteen, start and finish at the same time, our wage structure is public – we operate a grades system. Nothing is underhand and if we have an issue we always deal with it publicly .
If I had to run a nation – I would devise a different model – that model would start by splicing religion and state, it would also sell off all SOE’s and disband the military. It would open our doors to the world without prejudice… then see what we would become...At my age I have seen hope and despair in this nation - right now I have no confidence in our peoples ability to overturn the oppressor

padt
6:30pm Dec 22, 2011
And the issues from the local mosques and village chiefs are DrDez?

BilboBaggins
8:08pm Dec 22, 2011
DrDez
"right now I have no confidence in our peoples ability to overturn the oppressor "

It makes me sad that I feel that you are right on this point.

DrDez
8:15pm Dec 22, 2011
Padt : threats, stirring up trouble, asking for donations or bribes (not to cause trouble) & worse
Example: years ago we built 2 schools & still pay for uniforms, books & our onsite Nurse visits to check on the kids
The local mosque man came saying he could get the stuff cheaper & it would give local people employment. The Nurse noticed the kids had not got new uniforms so she asked the teacher who said they had not had anything this term. My wife confronted the cleric. I had given him via bank transfer Rp15jt down payment as requested about 8 weeks previously. He said he had not had the cash, so I involved the bank who proved it had been paid. The Police refused to press charges unless we paid a fee. We lost Rp15jt – we bought more books and uniforms and then stopped the annual gift to the mosque (Rp25jt) Can you believe he came to ask for it the first year! We refused resulting in vandalism and threats to staff direct from him
Aceh1 Remind me again why I should like Islam?

DrDez
8:16pm Dec 22, 2011
Bilbo
The problem is that the majority would in their shoes do exactly the same

Valkyrie
9:21pm Dec 22, 2011
DrDez...

I am able to understand how you feel about religion.
Just need to tell you that there are still some good apples in the basket.


SirAnthonyKnown-Bender
11:35pm Dec 22, 2011
Nice story from Dr Dez there and alas all too typical I fear. Rather than good apples, who would be good apples in any case, my own view is that religion, like the flag, is far more often something for bad apples to hide behind and mask their negativity behind a patina of respectability. And in related news I see that Iraq has lasted precisely one week after the Yanks left before reaching the verge of Islamic internecine civil war.

DrDez
6:40am Dec 23, 2011
Val
I have said this a million times. I have no issue with people being religious - UNTIL they start using their belief in god to hurt, kill, corrupt, oppress, control, outlaw blah blah(you get the picture)
Religion is a fine thing - it gives people hope and a support system.
What really pisses me off is when pious people have incredibly obvious double standards and use religion for personal gain.
What pisses me off even more is the ultra sensitivity that Islam is displaying right here right now
what pisses me off even more than that is the response of most religious people here 'well he cant be a Muslim the Koran forbids that' and on and on. ergo an Ostrich response
Sheesh when are we going to learn to live together? Why is Islam so frightened of criticism that the instant response is attack? When are the state going to stand up and protect the minority? Do recall that the minorities account for some 50 million people (approx 20% of 250m)its not like its a small number

DrDez
7:36am Dec 23, 2011
Sir
Yes I agree - and re Iraq it looks like an all out sunni/shia conflict is on the cards - They will of course blame the CIA or Zionists... But the Sunni have been slaughtering Shia in Iraq this year via the bus load (literally)
2012 will be a bad year I can feel it in my water

Yohanes-Sulaiman
12:14pm Dec 23, 2011
@all: What we observe here is the unholy incest between religion and politics. As long are religion is used as means to achieve political goals without paying much attention to rule of law, expect such idiocy to continue unhindered.

nonredneck
4:58pm Dec 23, 2011
DD: AHA...something clicks when you said "at my age"... Now I can see why we share many common agreement on issues, but the differece is in "hope". I'm guessing we as human measure our surroundings & future outlook based on our own lifespan. Say you live to 100 or more, it is most likely that you won't see much change at all,hence explain your outlook on the country. On the contrary I have a longer time to reach 100 so my outlook for the future is more hopeful therefore deemed more positive. But I'm surprised at so many younger audience reading JG having cynical views, I don't know if it's the sheep mentality, or they genuinely have cynical views at their young age, if they are genuine then I'll be worried because it's a vicious-cycle.

nonredneck
4:58pm Dec 23, 2011
On iraq, it has officially become a stage for proxy wars, secular propaganda must be strengthen. I don't care how, but the PR machines must work hard to spin that secular propaganda in the hearts and minds. Nationalistic fascism is better than religious extremism, north korea is easier to dismantle than extremist hydras

DrDez
5:20pm Dec 23, 2011
NRN
84 & married to my Indonesian wife (whom I met in Paris) over 50 years, we have lived in JK for nearly 44 years
I have seen a LOT of changes here, I see repeated & predictable patterns & right now we are in a cycle that will get significantly worse before it gets better. The TNI will figure large
Iraqi: the region will in 2012 see deaths beyond imagination. Civil war will continue in Syria & Yemen, sectarian violence will worsen in Iraq, Iran will maintain the support for Syria and The Shia in Iraq, Pakistan will continue killing itself until ISI takes over and no doubt will draw India into conflict. Behind the scenes Saudi will be pumping cash into Islamic extremism, the US will use the CIA as a counter measure, Russia and China will carry on their subversion. The MB will screw Egypt and probably in desperation take them to war with Israel, Turks meanwhile will continue to kill the kurds Marko would say its NWO time
I am not looking forward to '12. The grim reaper will be busy

nonredneck
4:36pm Dec 24, 2011
Hmmm many many dead bodies in mideast.... which is happier god or syaitan? > if their answer is 'g' then they're indicating that their 'g' is bloodthirsty. And if their answer is 's' then why use the 'g' name?

Friday, December 23, 2011

What Is the President Trying to Do? Maybe the History Books Can Help

Nothing new under the sun. Instead of streamlining the bureaucracy (thus making sure the buck stops on his desk), Indonesian rulers tend to blur the lines, creating infighting and thus making himself to be crucial to the workings of the bureaucracy.


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What Is the President Trying to Do? Maybe the History Books Can Help
Yohanes Sulaiman | October 19, 2011

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono appointed Nasaruddin Umar as deputy religious affairs minister (center), Denny Indrayana as deputy justice minister (right) and Widjajono Partowidagdo as deputy minister for energy and mineral resources. (Antara Photo/Widodo S. Jusuf)
Anyone wondering why the president would add so many deputy ministers to his cabinet might look to Indonesia’s history, starting from the Dutch’s involvement in Java.

Theoretically the kings of Java were very powerful. In reality, however, their power was circumscribed by the difficult terrain of Java itself. Ruling a realm full of jungles and surrounded by sea, with roads barely passable during the rainy season, the Javanese kings were hard-pressed to impose control over a huge, unwieldy swath of territory. It was thus in their best interest to keep the nobles happy, which meant involving them in any decision-making processes. So if there was a rebellion, it would be met by a united front.

The arrival of the Dutch upended the existing order. The king was no longer the source of power, and the Dutch habitually influenced political outcomes by throwing their weight around in disputes among the Javanese. In one instance, they got involved when Sultan Amangkurat I, the successor of the mighty Sultan Agung, asked for assistance in putting down the Trunajaya rebellion. Following that, the Dutch intervened on the side of the king in a number of civil wars.

The Dutch, however, found this policy to be expensive and unprofitable. For the Dutch East India Company (VOC), the main goal was profit, not costly wars of attrition that would sap its energy and manpower. Thus, the Dutch hoped to set up some sort of balance of power among the Javanese, which would stabilize politics and make it easier for them to do business there. They went about this by playing royal claimants against one another.

The kingdoms of Surakarta and Yogyakarta were formed on this principle. The Dutch would act as arbiters of peace, promising to join with any kingdom to fight military aggression by another. Surakarta and Yogyakarta were roughly equal in power, so Dutch involvement on one side would have granted a decisive superiority. In turn, should both kingdoms be wiling to maintain peace, the Dutch would guarantee the successions of each of their kingships.

This systemized strategy of pitting more-or-less equally strong competitors against one another had a long life, as it is still being used in Indonesia today to ensure that no one has too much power.

During the Guided Democracy, President Sukarno established what late journalist Rosihan Anwar called a triangle of power between himself, the Army and the Communist Party. Back then, the Army had no legitimate grounds for political involvement, unless through the declaration of a state of emergency, which was eventually provided by President Sukarno. In the face of an Army crackdown, the Communist Party needed Sukarno’s protection to survive.

At the same time, Sukarno needed the mass organization that only the Communist Party could provide and the Army to keep the communists in check. For good measure, Sukarno tried to split the Army by attempting to balance the powerful Gen. Abdul Haris Nasution against the rising Gen. Achmad Yani.

The entire effigy, however, came crashing down after the infamous September 30 Movement, which triggered the murky, still-disputed chain of events that culminated in the downfall of Sukarno.

When Gen. Suharto rose to the presidency in 1967, he too played power games. In the 1970s, Suharto used the same system as Sukarno to ensure that nobody within the armed forces could gain enough power to rise up and threaten him.

First, he balanced Gen. Sumitro with Gen. Ali Murtopo. Then, after Murtopo became too strong, Suharto promoted Benny Murdani and purged the bureaucracy of pro-Ali elements. In the 1990s, the country was riveted by the rise of the Indonesian Muslim Intellectuals Association (ICMI) and the dynamics between the Green ABRI, a faction of the military, and the Red ABRI.

With Suharto’s fall in 1998, the Army left politics for good, and government once again became the domain of politicians and their parties. But with no presidential election ever providing any one of them a decisive, absolute victory, Indonesian presidents, in order to ensure they remain at the top of the food chain, have had incentive to act like the Javanese kings. For Yudhoyono in the recent reshuffle, that meant including at least one representative from every major political party in his cabinet.

On one hand, this guarantees the stability of the presidency. On the other, it comes at the expense of professionalism and efficiency and makes for a bloated cabinet. Moreover, it pushes ministries toward becoming treasure chests for political parties, with the president unable to interfere lest he incur the parties’ wrath. Their treasuries flush from their cabinet representatives’ ministry projects, political parties can live to fight another day.

Yudhoyono seems to be trying to recreate this historical dualism in his cabinet in order to attain the control that has so far eluded him. I once speculated that the president might have believed he could cement his rule through high popularity ratings; the recent steep drop in that popularity must have spooked him into looking for other ways to assert control. The president is surely looking to tighten his grip over the emboldened coalition parties, especially Golkar, which has outmaneuvered him through a number of scandals, including the recent Bank Century scandal.

While it seems certain that the next cabinet will include mostly politicians and not professionals, it looks like Yudhoyono is hoping that by adding deputy ministers he can heighten his own power by weakening ministers from other parties, especially those who have the potential to be his strongest rivals, such as Golkar. He could be calculating that by creating new deputy ministers, the bureaucrats will instinctively figure out who really wears the pants. At the very least he might be trying to cause confusion, damaging the political parties’ hold on their ministries.

Of course, the million dollar question is, where will Yudhoyono go from here? Will the president use this opportunity to truly purge the bureaucracy of corruption, nepotism and collusion, creating a much-needed legacy for Indonesia’s future? Or will this just be another flash in the frying pan, all ending up with nothing more than a lot of groaning from people who see opportunities being squandered?

For Indonesia’s sake, I hope Yudhoyono is making the right choice.
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devine
6:09pm Oct 19, 2011
"For Indonesia’s sake, I hope Yudhoyono is making the right choice"... yes that is what we were hoping over and over again... it just never happened and I strongly doubt why things should suddenly change for the better now... he is simply not living up to the expectiations of the people.


DrDez
8:13pm Oct 19, 2011
Yohanes - an instructive article.
As we have discussed previously SBY is failing the nations poorest and most vulnerable - This changes not one thing - if anything it makes it worse because of his pretence... We are bound to give him a chance.
The last thing - It totally pisses me off that in a democracy over 45% of the executive board have not been elected


BilboBaggins
9:13pm Oct 19, 2011
He's trying to cover something, can't think what that is though?


Yohanes-Sulaiman
11:19pm Oct 19, 2011
@devine: Agree, but it is an obligatory ending for this kind of op-ed. :D

@DrDez: The 45% number is not an accident. It is a way to create layers and layers of bureaucracy that will absorb many of the disgruntled people and at the same time, muddling things up. In such a confused bureaucracy, you have lots and lots of possibilities to do and approve things that may not possible in a democratic state with strong bureaucracy.

@BilboBaggins: I think Aunt Mavis got it right. There are some others, but thanks to Tommy's successful lawsuit on Tempo, nobody is going to try to spell it in this kind of newspaper.


justapasserby
3:03am Oct 20, 2011
this is a complete white wash of dutch colonialist history. does yohanes sulaiman imply that the kingdom of surakarta and jogjakarta was somehow independent of the dutch? that the dutch was only an ally of one side against the other? I think not. The dutch considers all those kingdoms a substate within their empire.. up to this time, actually, in holland they still think and teach that Indonesia was rightfully theirs, and that the war in 1945 was a rebellion against the rightful owner of the land. Italy paid 5 billion usd as a "we're sorry" for their few years in desert libya.. I wonder how much the dutch would have to pay for their 350 years plundering this land of milk and honey..


Valkyrie
4:14am Oct 20, 2011
Bilbo,

He's beginning to be conscious that many are aware he's the King with new clothes.


Yohanes-Sulaiman
8:48am Oct 20, 2011
@justapasserby: I advised you to read great books authored by M.C. Ricklefs to have a fuller picture on the dilemmas and problems that the Dutch and the Royal houses faced during this period. Try to make a distinction between the Dutch Colonial Empire that started approximately from 1799 after the collapse of the VOC and the Dutch VOC Empire. VOC was a great power, but not that great and powerful to be able to conquer and pacify an island as rugged as Java. Until the fall of the VOC, we could consider the kingdoms of Surakarta and Jogjakarta to be independent of the Dutch. Heck, the only reason why the Dutch loved the partition was because they could not beat Mangkubumi and Mas Said in the battlefield.

Plus there's something called malaria that killed many of the European officers that arrived in Indonesia.

@Valkyrie: I think he'd be content to be left in peace composing his new theme songs.


DrDez
9:29am Oct 20, 2011
Yohanes
Yes - that is a fact and many people realise it - but where is the outcry?? My analysis is that there will be not change save a few high profile cases that are a distraction from greed and selfishness
Re Justypasserby - he/she I am afraid wants to blame the West and the Dutch for everything, is never willing to see that Indonesia or Islam is at fault, has some weird opinions on divorce etc etc - I am wondering if he/she is purebred reincarnate..


Yohanes-Sulaiman
10:59am Oct 20, 2011
@DrDez: I think aside of a few academics and people who really pay attention to bureaucracies, the majority of Indonesians were simply unaware of how bloated and useless the bureaucracy is. Well, let me rephrase it. People know of how inefficient the bureaucracy is, based on their regular interactions with the usual state apparatchik on the bottom of the food chain, e.g. license procurements, but they were unaware of all these high-level structure, e.g. all these national committees, coordinating bodies, special teams, etc. Most of them fly under the radar thus people are simply unaware - or probably taking the usual approach of "see, hear, say no evil."


DrDez
2:08pm Oct 20, 2011
Yohanes
It saddens me to agree with you.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

For Indonesia's Wounded President, an Opportunity

This was written a week before the reshuffle, though we already threw up our hands and accepted the unwelcomed truth that there was no way President SBY would make a zakenkabinet, but well, we had to write it.

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For Indonesia's Wounded President, an Opportunity
Yohanes Sulaiman | September 24, 2011



Late on Thursday night, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono put an end to the speculation surrounding a possible cabinet reshuffle as his administration continues to see its popularity slip. A new cabinet will be named next month, the president said, leaving pundits now wondering which fresh faces will front the administration. For Yudhoyono, the move is long overdue, and it offers a chance to show the country that, despite appearances, he is indeed still in charge.

A poll by the Indonesian Survey Circle this week attributed a woeful 37.7 percent satisfaction rate with Yudhoyono’s cabinet to a series of missteps and corruption scandals. The number will continue to fall amid reports of continued misconduct such as in the preparations for the Southeast Asian Games. Few would disagree that the time is right for a shake-up. Done right, the cabinet reshuffle will send a signal to the public, the political class and investors that the government is committed to making things right and deserves a fresh start.

At the same time, a cabinet rearrangement is a double-edged sword, as it is an admission of fault. It is a confession that the government has been unable to govern effectively, and tacitly a plea that voters give it a second chance. If everything is business as usual after the reshuffle, both citizens and investors will be all the less charitable.

To prevent this scenario, Yudhoyono needs to take pains to bring more professionals — regardless of their political affiliations — into key ministerial posts and he must grant them the freedom to do whatever is necessary to improve the performance of the cabinet. Part of this entails giving them adequate political backing to ensure their policies will not be second-guessed and thus vulnerable to political attacks.

The need for a professional-dominated cabinet with strong political backing is urgent, considering the discouraging global economic news of the past few days. In the United States, with President Barack Obama’s popularity in free-fall, the business community is waiting for a new Republican president that will be more accommodating to their interests, and thus are postponing investments and keeping the US economy from recovering for the time being.

In Europe, with a Greek default looking more and more likely, French banks are in dire straits, holding as they do a bulk of Greek bonds, and bringing into question whether this will lead to an economic contagion that will hit Spain, Portugal, and Italy. Such economic dominoes in the end threatens the existence of the euro itself.

The crises also threaten the German and Chinese economies, which rely on exports. In turn, the possibility of a Chinese economic slowdown would negatively impact Indonesia. Such considerations are among the main reasons Indonesia has seen recent rapid fluctuations in the values of both the rupiah and the Indonesia Stock Exchange.

Facing the prospect of a global economic slowdown battering the Indonesian economy, Yudhoyono does not have the luxury to rely on a cabinet based solely on political considerations.

Of course, there are questions of whether such a cabinet could survive in Indonesia’s fragmented political system, where there are nine parties in the legislature, and with the Golkar Party’s power rising. Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party is bleeding votes thanks to the Nazaruddin scandal and insensitive remarks by the gaffe-prone House of Representatives speaker, Marzuki Alie.

Yudhoyono, however, should realize that even at this lowest point of his presidency, with daily revelations of corruption eroding his credibility as a graft-fighting president, he is still one of the most popular politicians in Indonesia, far above lawmakers and political parties. His rivals have done a wonderful job destroying their own popularity, such as through pursuing anti-pornography laws while at the same time watching pornography in the legislative building.

By imposing on local communities radical religious bylaws that provoke discontent, Yudhoyono’s rivals are handing him issues that he can use to show himself as a unifier above petty politics. Sadly, however, Yudhoyono has failed to seize these opportunities. He never uses his presidential bully pulpit to show that he is the only adult in the kindergarten of Indonesian politics.

The president’s steady decline in popularity is less influenced by his policies than it is caused by the impression he is aloof, far removed from the nitty-gritty of governing and doing nothing to assure people that the government is in charge and is doing its best to curb misconduct, to stop sectarian political conflict and to cut the red tape that strangles economic growth.

Indeed, Yudhoyono is his own worst enemy. Inactivity hounds him far more than his political rivals in the legislature. His inability to act decisively in following through on his election promises of eradicating corruption, of going full speed ahead in pursuing growth-oriented policies and of cracking down on thuggish organizations and irresponsible politicians that play with religious issues for political gains led to his steady decline in popularity.

For himself and the country, the president needs to seize this moment. When the new cabinet debuts, it must be filled with professionals with strong accountability and strong backing from the president. It is time for Yudhoyono to show his political guts, and to reassert that he is in charge. The nation waits.


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Mike.Jkt
7:20am Sep 25, 2011
Wounded my butt...SBY has shot himself in the foot so many times it's hard to believe he can still walk.

padt
8:16am Sep 25, 2011
What I like so much about Yohanes Sulaiman's insightful articles are the tantalizing implied comments written between the lines.
I think people are very generous towards SBY. I dont think he realises just how generous and patient people are, considering what appears to be implied, between the lines.


Asoegenie
1:01pm Sep 25, 2011
Thank you for a truly excellent article, Bapak Yohanes Sulaiman. I believe, however, that the next cabinet will be just as lame-duck as the present one. SBY and his family have too many political obligations.


mauriceg
7:15pm Sep 25, 2011
SBY demonstrated his inability to do his job immediately after the last elections. He has hobbled from crisis to crisi, from scandals, fraud, lies and conspiracies from his ministers, judges, and officials everywhere. He has presided in silence over pogroms, murders, lynchings, bombings, rapes, and all other manner of crimes.
He appears to be in thrall to religious orhanisations, big business, financial institutions, the military incursions in Papua, pays lip service to green issues etc.
In short he is useless, and incompetent. His not wishing to be involved in issues is plain weakness and stupidity.
Were it not for the lack of credible alternatives, and the worry about it being undemocratic,he and his fellow incompetents should have been taken outside into the street and dumped. The question is, who would be able to be a credible alternative, pose qustions of no-confidence in the coalition and call for new elections.
Another problem is that the political system is so riddled with fraud, deception, lies and criminality, that almost no-one is untainted.
It's a shame that this is the best that Indonesia can manage, and is a total disgrace.


Yohanes-Sulaiman
8:39am Sep 26, 2011
Thank you all for your nice comments. Sorry for being late in replying. I was out of town.

@Mike: well, like they said, a lame is a king in the land of cripples. There's no alternative so far and we are stuck with the best that we got. Just cross our fingers and wish for the best.

@padt: I don't know what you are talking about. :P looking forward to our next lunch.

@mauriceg: had a nice chat with some interesting people last week. Noted the similarities between SBY and Obama. Both are highly intellectuals - SBY is famous for having a great well-stocked library. Every time he goes abroad, defense attaches are scrambling to get new books on politics, mil. Strategy, and various others. Yet that's their undoing, taking too much time considering the path of least resistance, don't want to step on someone's foot - both positions are not that strong, too much baggage and some things you don't want to know. Probs another generation to fix it?


Yohanes-Sulaiman
8:48am Sep 26, 2011
@asoegenie: thanks for comments. To be honest, I am also thinking his instinct will go for political-cabinet. Still, we just hope that he realize that he can't keep having this kind of nonsenses and distractions. Din Syam is very pessimistic though and hope he realizes that he better gets a zakenkabinet or we'd get hit by market.


DrDez
9:41am Sep 26, 2011
Yohanes et al -

Good piece again thank you..

SBY is not an intellectual - he is a lost lamb - I do not know who is behind him but she is pulling the strings and she is surrounding herself with allies, family and favours to safeguard the future...

The reshuffle will and always will be a path of least resistance (good phrase) there will be some casualties but they will have their influence maintained in other ways. While we are in a situation whereby so many people hold the strings of the president he or she cannot and will never wield authority sufficient to make the changes required to propel Indonesia forward = That of course assumes that an elected (sic) President wants to propel us forward and is not motivated by self interest and greed

I hold no great hopes for a meaningful reshuffle to actually take place after all the President did say in January and again in February he would review and make changes as required. He made non then and all we can hope for now is a sacrificial lamb or two - that has been made easy because he can fire those currently embroiled in corruption and maintain some of the others on the basis of continuity ...
I will be dead before you see a President that has at the forefront of his or her mind Indonesia.


Yohanes-Sulaiman
10:26am Sep 26, 2011
@DrDez: thank you for your kind comment. I think though, that SBY simply proves that intellectuals do not necessarily make great prez. SBY is lacking the guts, the thing that you need to say enough is enough and let's work. Self interests play a huge role but like Suharto proved, you could be a self-interested person that focused on fattening your kids with graft and yet at the same time raising overall standard of living respectably.