Media Can Sway Public Opinion, But Not as Effectively as an Underperforming Party

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Media Can Sway Public Opinion, But Not as Effectively as an Underperforming Party
Yohanes Sulaiman | June 22, 2012

If anyone was wondering why President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono seemed frustrated in his speech during the Democratic Party convention last week, the results of a pair of recent surveys from the Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicate and the Indonesian Survey Circle should help.

Both surveys showed that the Democratic Party’s popularity was declining rapidly. The Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) noted that support for the Democratic Party had dropped from 13.7 percent in January to 11.3 percent, while the SSS put the Democratic Party’s support at 10.7 percent.

Both surveys ominously predicted that the Democratic Party would become nothing more than another middle-tier party, should the trend continue.

Previously, Yudhoyono acknowledged that the Democratic Party’s popularity had taken a major hit. However, he blamed media bias for this turmoil, declaring that the Democratic Party was much less corrupt than its rivals and yet it received the biggest scrutiny, which in turn dragged the popularity of the party through the mud.

After the surveys were released, Democratic Party officials, notably Nurhayati Ali Assegaf, the recently-appointed chairwoman of the Democratic faction in the legislature, questioned the methodology of the surveys and wondered if the surveys were biased.

Yudhoyono and the Democratic officials might have a case that the media and survey methodologies are biased — but given the Democratic Party is being sullied by the ongoing Muhammad Nazaruddin corruption scandal, it cannot be denied that the party has been helping fuel the negative perceptions.

TVOne and MetroTV, the most influential stations in Indonesia, are owned by the leaders of Golkar and the National Democrat (NasDem) Party, respectively. Neither station is shy about advocating the political views of its owners.

They have the ability to shape public opinion on certain subjects, and their coverage in many cases can be considered hostile to the Democrats and Yudhoyono. MetroTV pretty much enjoys rubbing salt in the wounds of the Democrats by repeating the Democratic Party’s mantra, “Say No to Corruption” on its coverage on the ongoing Nazaruddin corruption scandal.

But even with that influence, neither station has been able to propel their respective owners to the front of the presidential candidacy pack.

The SSS and LSI listed Prabowo Subianto and Megawati Sukarnoputri as the two top vote-getters, respectively, should the presidential election be held today. Surya Paloh (NasDem) and Aburizal Bakrie (Golkar) trail. The Democratic Party could make a strong case that the polling organizations are biased, since it is possible that they were paid by either Prabowo, Megawati or both, in order to provide favorable results.

Pollsters have admitted, privately, that there are occasionally incentives to create favorable results in order to either maintain a business relationship with a candidate, or to perform as a public relations tool. Those polling organizations, however, generally fold after the elections because their predictions strayed too far from the actual results.

On the other hand, the polling results from the LSI and SSS are generally close to the actual numbers. While there are some differences in the results, they are often the result of a variation in sampling methods that generally fall within the margin of error.

There are some external factors influencing the results, notably the fact that the presidential election is still some time away and most of the prospective candidates aren’t that well known. Prabowo and Megawati, however, have been on the ballot several times already.

These surveys were useful for the insight they brought to the table and they essentially confirm each other’s findings. The LSI bluntly stated that Yudhoyono’s passivity hurt the Democratic Party’s prospects. The SSS survey stressed that “decisiveness” was the most popular attribute among voters, meaning that Yudhoyono’s inability to rein in the extremist groups such as the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) and to safeguard human rights and the freedom to worship also took its toll.

This could be seen in the results of both surveys, where the biggest beneficiaries of the Democratic Party’s collapse in public support are Megawati’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and Golkar, not the religious parties.

The media is important and able to sway public opinion but there is a limit to how much influence it has. It seems more likely that Yudhoyono and the Democratic Party have themselves to blame for these abysmal results.

The media and the surveyors would not have been in a position to do much harm to the president and the Democrats had Yudhoyono acted with vigor and determination in rooting out corruption and cleaning up his party, while acting decisively to stamp out extremist groups and religious intolerance in the country.

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zerodiversity

1:02pm Jun 22, 2012

I don't trust these surveys especially surveys that place Megawati in top two position. Megawati has not proven much as a President before and her time is over. However, you don't need experts to tell you that the Democrats reputation is free-falling. The President's indecisiveness and leadership problems have been fully exposed as well as the corrupted party members. Add in the fact that high ranking members like Anas and Andi and many others being implicated in corruption and you have a mess of a party. Don't blame the media pak SBY because your party has itself to blame.

Pelan2

1:22pm Jun 22, 2012

@zero - Self destruction seems to be the order of the day. It is indeed unbelievable that a country with roughly 240 mill people are unable to come up with a suitable presidential candidate, but instead keeps pushing forward all the useless "hasbeens" that is hoping for a second chance to make a fool of themselves again...

devine

1:44pm Jun 22, 2012

zerodiversity; correct. And if Mega would have any dignity she would not even consider running again. Bad looser, bad sample for the whole nation. But then, it's Indonesia! OppositeLand...

Pelan2

2:29pm Jun 22, 2012

@devine - careful with the word dignity - you know where we are..

From Indonesia Matters Dec 20th 2008///Megawati was not always quiet when talking to her ministers though, but was generally only roused to speech by matters such as gardening, cooking and food, and shopping, but not affairs of state. On serious issues, she tended to lose her concentration very fast, it is said./// All in a nutshell

Valkyrie

3:22pm Jun 22, 2012

My guess will be that Nasdem will reel in JK and MM. Kingmakers?

Pelan2

4:20pm Jun 22, 2012

Still going with Prabowo if he can surround himself with "clever" people. The Democrats (SBY,Anas, Andi) and Golkar (Ical) has given him enough free ammunition + Mega is largely forgotten. JK has the problem that he is not from Java, but may make a "good" president.

Valkyrie

5:22pm Jun 22, 2012

Pelan2....

Have you observed the presence of JK and MM during many of NasDem gatherings? Isn't it obvious?

I'll go with the Nasdem choice and I'll bet they'll surprise many.

zerodiversity

5:46pm Jun 22, 2012

@Pelan2

Looking at the list of people you mention makes me sad to be Indonesian because after 10-15 years, it's still the same group of people for Presidential candidates. We are approaching oligarchy not democracy. Do we really lack talent and leaders?

Yohanes-Sulaiman

6:22pm Jun 22, 2012

Thank you for your kind comments.

@Zero: I suspect Mega's popularity is due to her high name recognition. Keep in mind that majority of Indonesians (and anyone anywhere) don't follow politics too closely and thus when they are asked these questions, they will just pick the ones they are very familiar with.

I suspect once the field is more established in a year or so, Megawati's popularity will decline. Prabowo, however, could use the momentum from both survey and Jakarta election to propel himself ahead.

Nasdem is an interesting case, where to some degree it stole the votes that supposed go to both Golkar and Democratic Party. IF SP plays his cards right, like some suggested, putting JK and MM as their public faces, it could break the middling rank.

Valkyrie

6:31pm Jun 22, 2012

zero....

No need to be sad. This country is at the bottom of the pit. How deeper can it go?

Go sponsor a poor kid and give him/her a chance. A few of us are currently doing that.

Those tiny drops of water made that mighty ocean.

TalkingEid

7:18pm Jun 22, 2012

Seemingly Indonesian politics has chosen English football club management as its model - fail, and you get invited to do the same trick again.