The Silver Lining of a Failed Asean Summit

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The Silver Lining of a Failed Asean Summit
Yohanes Sulaiman | July 21, 2012

In an Asean first, the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations last week were unable to issue the usual joint communique at the end of their summit. Irreconcilable differences regarding the South China Sea, with diplomats pointing at Cambodia’s unwillingness to embarrass Beijing, were the reasons for the deadlock. 

Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa said in response: “I think it is utterly irresponsible if we cannot come up with a common statement on South China Sea. This is a time when Asean should be seen to be acting as one, when the rest of the region expects Asean to be acting as one, and that’s why it’s extremely disappointing that so far we have not been able to achieve that.” 

Marty was right to feel disappointed over Asean’s failure. This summit broke the “taboo” that regardless of the debates and acrimony within the summit, by the end of the day, every country will sit down, shake hands and issue a joint communique that papers over the differences and saves face. 

The failure to issue a joint communique this time around can be said to have torn apart the facade of Asean unity. If 10 nations cannot agree on one joint communique that is full of generalities and only mentions that the summit was also discussing the contentious issue of the Scarborough Shoal, then it remains to be seen whether Asean has the political will to push for more drastic (and most likely painful and domestically unpopular) measures that will be needed down the road in forming a stronger union. 

While the Southeast Asian nations have high hopes and plans for the future of the organization, hoping that it can help strengthen their ties and develop common interests, not unlike the European Union, the failure shows that there is still has a long way to go. It also raises another issue: when push comes to shove, can Asean members rely on each other? 

There might just be a silver lining to this fiasco. The inability to issue joint communiques may be seen as normal for future summits. That way, summits will actually be used to bring up difficult issues and force Asean nations to face the most contentious of issues head-on. Controversial decisions may be made, with some nations agreeing and others objecting — something that under the current facade of harmony is impossible. 

The caveat, though, is that all Asean countries must have enough political will to stay together and turn Asean into a binding organization; otherwise, it faces disintegration. Therefore, the Phnom Penh summit should be used for introspection and possibly a great time to think of the future of Asean itself. 

China should also take heed. It may have won this round by using its influence to make sure that Asean chair Cambodia kept the issue of the Scarborough Shoal from the final communique. In the long term, however, China could end up losing the war to win the hearts and minds of the Asean nations. 

Should China’s actions undermine the unity of Asean, the disgruntled Southeast Asian countries might put the blame on China for wrecking the Asean project with its unwelcome interference. That won’t be good news for China’s good relationships with the majority of Southeast Asian countries and its goals in the region. 

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serenityjam

10:59pm Jul 21, 2012

Our foreign minister is correct to feel disappointed and remarked that the ASEAN's failure to issue a joint communique is 'utterly irresponsible'.

He must be referring to Cambodia (as chair and host in Phnom Penh) that acted shamelessly to refuse the call of nine other countries to make mention of the crisis at Scarborough Shoal.

ASEAN must resist aggression from a superpower. China has a hidden agenda to control the Southeast Asian region. China is trying to "rewrite" history by telling tales about its alleged proofs of ownership by showing fraudulent maps and imagined conquests of islands in the past by the naval expeditions commissioned by

its dynastic emperors.

Indonesia should be wary because China can do what it is doing to provoke the Philippines on Scarborough Shoal. I am confident that the ASEAN will be restored as one formidable economic bloc and China's intrusion in the ASEAN territorial waters will not succeed. ASEAN, unite!

maspanji

11:35pm Jul 21, 2012

Asean is a noble cause but its vision is fall short due to suspicion among its member states, namely Malaysia - Indonesia, Thailand- Cambodia, Walaysia - Singapore etc. And the only country that the Chinese to reckon with is Vietnam.

DasMonk

12:17pm Jul 22, 2012

Mr Serenityjam. I feel the post frommaspanji is correct, I would go further and say that certainly in Indonesia and Thailand the suspician of its neighbours is fueled by misplaced hateful rhetoric from those who should know better such as politicians

Regarding China's expansionist policies, this will inevietably lead to direct military conflict within the next few years, potentially months

China will aggress and the ASEAN will maintain a non retaliation stance. The president is making his customary loud noise but is devoid of any action. To analyse why we should consider the deals over the last decade whereby we have lost out as a nation, but perhaps not personally

It is with regret that the Philipines best freinds are in North America and when the blood starts to flow it will be they and not us who provide assistance

We dream of being a regional superpower but seem unwilling to take the burden it brings time and time again

Yohanes-Sulaiman

7:45pm Jul 22, 2012

Thank you for your kind comments. I never expected to receive comments on a foreign affairs piece. So glad that I was proved wrong.

I will add that the biggest problem with ASEAN is in the lack of common interests, goals, and visions, especially after the end of the Cold War. While The European Union moved from "anti-Soviet" bloc to creating a common market that could in the end balance against the US and Japan (later China), ASEAN has not really made such rethinking, other than just try to slog around hopefully everything would be all right. That's the unfortunate effect of simply creating an association without trying to strengthen it or to create a common long term interest or goal between all states in the region

Other problem is the fact that ASEAN keeps maintaining the illusion that it has nothing to do with security, while in reality, it is all about security (back then, it was created to keep the Commies out). Thus, the mismatch between the policy and reality

serenityjam

10:16pm Jul 22, 2012

@DasMonk:

Last time I heard our foreign minister Marty Natalegawa went to Manila to spearhead common statement among ASEAN member-nations in lieu of joint communique. It seems, sir, that Indonesia is doing something about China's aggression.

I am happy to hear that. Maybe, as citizens, we should support our government's foreign relations moves. I know that foreign ministers speak rhetorically but underneath those statements they mean business. There is one positive action. Am I glad that our foreign minister is leading the way.

Besides, there is no need to think of going to war. China as a bully must be pressured through world opinion. There is power in the pen. ASEAN member-nations are generally peace-loving people, are we not?

DasMonk

6:51am Jul 23, 2012

Mr Yohanes-Sulaiman

The future failure of ASEAN to remain nothing more than a club is down to several points already outlined, lack of common interest, self interest and suspician among the major listings, nationalist hatred

However convolutly it may well be the China threat that finally draws us together in the same way as the threat of war in Europe banded the nations. The EU was born from the The European Coal and Steel Community with the belief that tied national interests would avert war. It has to date succeeded.

The number one priority is to recognise the threat and as yet all I see in China buying influence and silence around the world. It bodes ill for the region because at some point it will come to conflict. Recent history shows we have sided with Ahmadijah, Gaddiffi and Assad and promoted a non intervention model. When the Chinese start firing one cannot help thinking we will side with Beijing and do nothing