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Be Wary of Foreign Meddlers, Asean
Yohanes Sulaiman | November 23, 2012
Barack Obama’s three-day Southeast Asian trip might have been planned a while ago, but it cannot be denied that the timing was perfect.
The US president’s visit to Thailand, Myanmar, and Cambodia took place in the aftermath of his re-election victory and China’s 18th Party Congress that chose Xi Jinping as the country’s new leader. Even so, the timing reinforces the idea of a pivot that, regardless of the current turmoil in the Middle East or Europe, would focus the gaze of the United States on the Pacific region.
While many US diplomats disclaim the idea of pivot, as noted by Obama in his third debate with Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, the United States did engage in a pivot. The Pacific region will be the site of rising political and economic power in the future, and thus it is logical that the United States will invest more resources and increase its presence in the region, especially as it also considers itself a Pacific power.
China, of course, is the undeclared competitor in the region, and seen by many US allies in the region as the main threat. Obama’s trip seemed to be calibrated to warn China to temper its ambition. All the countries that he visited were located in an area vulnerable to China’s sway.
For instance, Thaksin Shinawatra, a previous Thai prime minister and brother of the incumbent, was seen as moving Thailand closer to China during his five years as leader to 2006. Myanmar used to be considered a client state of China until it gambled by breaking from China’s orbit and courting the United States. It was richly rewarded through the historic first visit of the US president to the country and much needed investment.
Cambodia, another country seen to be very close to China, was visited due to it holding the chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Obama, as well as raising the issue of human rights with Prime Minister Hun Sen, also raised concerns over the South China Sea dispute, in spite of protests from China.
Not surprisingly, the Philippines took the opportunity of having implicit support from the United States to openly challenge China by disputing Cambodia’s assertion that Southeast Asian leaders “had decided that they will not internationalize the South China Sea from now on.” Close to the end of last week’s 21st Asean Summit, the Philippines was joined by Brunei, Indonesia, Vietnam and Singapore to dispute the chairman’s draft statement that there was consensus that the South China Sea issue should not be internationalized.
China in turn went into damage control. While Xi declared China’s firmness in safeguarding its sovereignty, he also threw in some carrots, promising that China would encourage more investment in Asean countries, notably in manufacturing, commercial services and new energy. Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra also announced that China had expressed interests in buying Thai agricultural products and expanding investment in infrastructure in Thailand.
The question, however, is whether Asean and especially Indonesia can get its act together in light of undue interference from China and the United States.
It cannot be denied that Asean this year, in spite of some achievements — it managed to start negotiations to create the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the world’s largest trading bloc that will comprise more than three billion people and with a combined gross domestic product of $15 trillion — has taken quite a lot of beatings over the South China Sea issue.
Asean’s unity is in question, and will remain so due to the loose linkages that bind the grouping, making it prone to outside interference. So the association has a lot of homework to do to ensure that it remains relevant beyond economic matters.
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Contextus
8:05am Nov 24,
2012
Extra-regional powers are most welcome if their balancing efforts help to neutralize the threat of a regional or extra-regional power acting in defiance of international law like China in her geopolitical dreams about the South Chinese Sea; setting limits at an early stage is much more rewarding than appeasement.
Yohanes-Sulaiman
11:25am Nov 24,
2012
@Contextus: Of course the problem here is the diverging interests of ASEAN nations, where ASEAN is more of association of conveniences, rather than a true effort to create a united front against foreign threats. It is almost impossible to set a limit in light of the inability of Asean nations to realize that at this rate, ASEAN is on the golden brick road to nowhere.
slowburner
11:46am Nov 24,
2012
Indonesia isn't developing - it's regressing. Any decent Indonesian I've ever met lives overseas away from the blight of their homeland. And they are embarrassed to be Indonesian. Shameful Indonesia.
Yohanes-Sulaiman
12:18pm Nov 24,
2012
@slowburner: I agree, but what that has anything to do with this article?
jchay
8:23am Nov 27,
2012
How would ASEAN ever be free of interference especially from China and US, when the ASEAN countries are not confident enough in the belief that they will be stronger as one region? That's why each country will never stop flirting to China or US, trying to get extra brownie points for themselves..
thus my point is, ASEAN actually welcomes the meddlers! ;)
jojakarta
11:35am Nov 27,
2012
@slowburner. Your comment has nothing to do with this article. Yes Indonesia is regressing in a way if you are so into pakistanised indonesia, environment overexploitation, economic disparity, minority oppression and the like. I am not embarrassed but yes I do weep and lament this tragedy of ours.
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Additional Comments:
A: Hello, just read your Friday Op-ed in the JG, nice article; my main takeaway was that ASEAN needs unity to maintain relevance but I have to disagree some what that China or the US is meddling, I don't think ASEAN operates in a political-economic vacuum so outside interest in this rising region is the new normal. What do you think?
Yohanes Sulaiman:
Thanks for comment. Glad you like it. First though, the title is not mine. It is JG's editor's choice. I really need to start giving them my own title, but I suck in making catchy titles so I delegate that responsibility to them and this is one of few times that I have a facepalm moment
Then again, you are right that I neglect to include that critical paragraph that it is in the interests of both china and US to intervene in the region, putting the article in a more neutral position. Still, the take home point is the same, that as you noted that Asean really needs to get its act together lest it become more and more irrelevant.
But here's the problem that I don't include there and can't really say outloud. Asean is like that by design, to prevent interferences by its own members to each other. Indonesia is especially very adamant about that. Really problematic.
So Asean should be more united, but at the same time, all its members are dragged kicking and screaming toward that. It is like you want a casino but at the same time, you don't want troubles associated with it.
A: All good points; yeah, seems that one of the inherent weakness of ASEAN is that certain blocks or members seek different goals from the org.
Yohanes Sulaiman:
But rather than tackling it, you end up saying that you don't neeed security guard because there's no problem And the more you repeat it, the more you think that your BS is correct. They also don't want security because that means they have to take turn guarding and nonee of them like to either guarding or being ordered to guard. Thus you got a casino and al Capone next door, but you pretend al Capone is a dominican friar. That, I think what asean is all about
A: I like the analogy! :)
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