SBY’s Challenge: Forget Popularity Polls And Focus on How to Leave a Legacy

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SBY’s Challenge: Forget Popularity Polls And Focus on How to Leave a Legacy
Yohanes Sulaiman | July 04, 2011

Why should anyone care about public opinion? That should be the question after the Indonesian Survey Circle announced that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s approval rating had dropped to 47.2 percent in its latest survey from 56.7 percent in January.

In the resulting brouhaha, it is interesting to observe that the pundits seem to be arguing that the president has lost his legitimacy to govern, even while knowing that public opinion is famously volatile in response to changing events. Any decision made by a leader is bound to upset a significant chunk of the population. Even though a policy may be beneficial in the long run, in the short term those who benefit from the status quo will be upset. Others will take issue with a policy that, in their eyes, does not go far enough to solve what they perceive as a national problem.

Leaders shouldn’t expect their approval ratings always to remain high. And fluctuations in public opinion should be seen as a normal after-effect of the decision-making process. Pundits are missing this important point in their haste to pounce on the survey results. Instead of asking why President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s approval rating has dropped below 50 percent, they should be asking why the president didn’t do more to pursue radical but important policies the nation desperately needed while his approval rating was high.

Dick Cheney, the former vice president of the United States, once said that he did not care about the “fluctuations in the public opinion polls,” and that what was important was for a leader to have a clear goal and stay the course, even if pursuing an unpopular policy — which in his case took the form of committing the United States to the very unpopular war in Iraq.

Regardless of whether one agrees or disagrees with the Bush administration’s decision to invade Iraq, it is clear that it understood the purpose of public opinion. Public opinion in essence is political capital, showing how much confidence a population has in a government to pursue any kind of policy. It must not be seen as something to be lauded, but as public goodwill that must be utilized effectively.

A high approval rating is basically a mandate to pursue long-term policies that may not be popular in the short term. Popularity provides political capital to buy time in pursuing controversial and oftentimes damaging short-term policies for the long-term benefit.

At the same time, any administration should make sure to use the presidential office as a bully pulpit, providing information and justification for decisions that the president makes, in order to slow down and arrest the inevitable decline of popularity due to the short-term impacts of long-term policies, and due to the constant political sniping from the opposition.

This kind of understanding is lacking in Yudhoyono’s administration. Ever since he was re-elected in 2009 with 64.7 percent of the vote, Yudhoyono has surprisingly been pursuing a very subdued domestic political program. In short, the president has been unwilling to commit himself to either breakthrough decisions or controversial issues. He regularly distances himself from headline-grabbing scandals, ranging from the witch-hunt against former Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati in the Bank Century case to growing religious disputes like the persecution of Ahmadiyah followers or the Bogor mayor’s blatant disregard for the rule of law in the Taman Yasmin church case.

Instead, the president seems to get involved only in trivial matters, on issues that are beneath the dignity of his office, like the mysterious SMS that alleged corruption in his Democratic Party or demands for his resignation from the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI).

While Yudhoyono has managed to avoid the roller-coaster approval ratings typical of most presidents of democratic countries, he cannot avoid the gradual but persistent decline in his popularity, especially among people who are becoming more and more disillusioned with the lethargy, disorganization and confusion of this administration.

So what can the president do to turn around this situation?

First, he needs to strengthen his authority and utilize his spokesmen more effectively. Yudhoyono could save himself some grief by having better communication with the media, showing that he is always up to date with recent developments and ready to tackle any news, good or bad. The president, through his official mouthpieces, has the ability to influence the narrative of the news and provide damage control as needed.

Second, the president should be more willing to take political risks. And he should start by streamlining the bloated bureaucracy that does nothing but weigh down economic growth.

One of the main reasons economic growth has been so lethargic in comparison with neighboring states is the inefficient bureaucrats who keep adding layers of red tape, making it difficult for companies to invest and to expand, not to mention eating up the national budget through salaries, making less money available to develop much needed infrastructure.

He should also be willing to break some eggs by getting rid of his many ineffective and controversial ministers who damage the reputation of his administration, notably through their public relations blunders and ineffective efforts in combating corruption inside and outside the administration.

Yudhoyono should realize that his popularity will keep declining as long as those convicted of graft receive mere slaps on the wrist, and as long as graft scandals keep swirling around the Democratic Party itself.

Third, Yudhoyono should articulate a clear and coherent long-term policy to the public. Instead of just reacting to unfolding events, he should initiate a debate on what the government is going to do in the short and long term. What people want is a sense of direction and purpose that the administration up to now has failed to provide.

Finally, Yudhoyono should not worry about his declining popularity. Rather, he should use his still relatively high rating to pursue much-needed policies, to build the foundations of strong economic growth for his successors. That will be the best legacy he can leave for Indonesia.