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For Indonesia's Wounded President, an Opportunity
Yohanes Sulaiman | September 24, 2011
Late on Thursday night, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono put an end to the speculation surrounding a possible cabinet reshuffle as his administration continues to see its popularity slip. A new cabinet will be named next month, the president said, leaving pundits now wondering which fresh faces will front the administration. For Yudhoyono, the move is long overdue, and it offers a chance to show the country that, despite appearances, he is indeed still in charge.
A poll by the Indonesian Survey Circle this week attributed a woeful 37.7 percent satisfaction rate with Yudhoyono’s cabinet to a series of missteps and corruption scandals. The number will continue to fall amid reports of continued misconduct such as in the preparations for the Southeast Asian Games. Few would disagree that the time is right for a shake-up. Done right, the cabinet reshuffle will send a signal to the public, the political class and investors that the government is committed to making things right and deserves a fresh start.
At the same time, a cabinet rearrangement is a double-edged sword, as it is an admission of fault. It is a confession that the government has been unable to govern effectively, and tacitly a plea that voters give it a second chance. If everything is business as usual after the reshuffle, both citizens and investors will be all the less charitable.
To prevent this scenario, Yudhoyono needs to take pains to bring more professionals — regardless of their political affiliations — into key ministerial posts and he must grant them the freedom to do whatever is necessary to improve the performance of the cabinet. Part of this entails giving them adequate political backing to ensure their policies will not be second-guessed and thus vulnerable to political attacks.
The need for a professional-dominated cabinet with strong political backing is urgent, considering the discouraging global economic news of the past few days. In the United States, with President Barack Obama’s popularity in free-fall, the business community is waiting for a new Republican president that will be more accommodating to their interests, and thus are postponing investments and keeping the US economy from recovering for the time being.
In Europe, with a Greek default looking more and more likely, French banks are in dire straits, holding as they do a bulk of Greek bonds, and bringing into question whether this will lead to an economic contagion that will hit Spain, Portugal, and Italy. Such economic dominoes in the end threatens the existence of the euro itself.
The crises also threaten the German and Chinese economies, which rely on exports. In turn, the possibility of a Chinese economic slowdown would negatively impact Indonesia. Such considerations are among the main reasons Indonesia has seen recent rapid fluctuations in the values of both the rupiah and the Indonesia Stock Exchange.
Facing the prospect of a global economic slowdown battering the Indonesian economy, Yudhoyono does not have the luxury to rely on a cabinet based solely on political considerations.
Of course, there are questions of whether such a cabinet could survive in Indonesia’s fragmented political system, where there are nine parties in the legislature, and with the Golkar Party’s power rising. Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party is bleeding votes thanks to the Nazaruddin scandal and insensitive remarks by the gaffe-prone House of Representatives speaker, Marzuki Alie.
Yudhoyono, however, should realize that even at this lowest point of his presidency, with daily revelations of corruption eroding his credibility as a graft-fighting president, he is still one of the most popular politicians in Indonesia, far above lawmakers and political parties. His rivals have done a wonderful job destroying their own popularity, such as through pursuing anti-pornography laws while at the same time watching pornography in the legislative building.
By imposing on local communities radical religious bylaws that provoke discontent, Yudhoyono’s rivals are handing him issues that he can use to show himself as a unifier above petty politics. Sadly, however, Yudhoyono has failed to seize these opportunities. He never uses his presidential bully pulpit to show that he is the only adult in the kindergarten of Indonesian politics.
The president’s steady decline in popularity is less influenced by his policies than it is caused by the impression he is aloof, far removed from the nitty-gritty of governing and doing nothing to assure people that the government is in charge and is doing its best to curb misconduct, to stop sectarian political conflict and to cut the red tape that strangles economic growth.
Indeed, Yudhoyono is his own worst enemy. Inactivity hounds him far more than his political rivals in the legislature. His inability to act decisively in following through on his election promises of eradicating corruption, of going full speed ahead in pursuing growth-oriented policies and of cracking down on thuggish organizations and irresponsible politicians that play with religious issues for political gains led to his steady decline in popularity.
For himself and the country, the president needs to seize this moment. When the new cabinet debuts, it must be filled with professionals with strong accountability and strong backing from the president. It is time for Yudhoyono to show his political guts, and to reassert that he is in charge. The nation waits.
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Mike.Jkt
7:20am Sep 25, 2011
Wounded my butt...SBY has shot himself in the foot so many times it's hard to believe he can still walk.padt
8:16am Sep 25, 2011
What I like so much about Yohanes Sulaiman's insightful articles are the tantalizing implied comments written between the lines.I think people are very generous towards SBY. I dont think he realises just how generous and patient people are, considering what appears to be implied, between the lines.
Asoegenie
1:01pm Sep 25, 2011
Thank you for a truly excellent article, Bapak Yohanes Sulaiman. I believe, however, that the next cabinet will be just as lame-duck as the present one. SBY and his family have too many political obligations. mauriceg
7:15pm Sep 25, 2011
SBY demonstrated his inability to do his job immediately after the last elections. He has hobbled from crisis to crisi, from scandals, fraud, lies and conspiracies from his ministers, judges, and officials everywhere. He has presided in silence over pogroms, murders, lynchings, bombings, rapes, and all other manner of crimes.He appears to be in thrall to religious orhanisations, big business, financial institutions, the military incursions in Papua, pays lip service to green issues etc.
In short he is useless, and incompetent. His not wishing to be involved in issues is plain weakness and stupidity.
Were it not for the lack of credible alternatives, and the worry about it being undemocratic,he and his fellow incompetents should have been taken outside into the street and dumped. The question is, who would be able to be a credible alternative, pose qustions of no-confidence in the coalition and call for new elections.
Another problem is that the political system is so riddled with fraud, deception, lies and criminality, that almost no-one is untainted.
It's a shame that this is the best that Indonesia can manage, and is a total disgrace.
Yohanes-Sulaiman
8:39am Sep 26, 2011
Thank you all for your nice comments. Sorry for being late in replying. I was out of town.@Mike: well, like they said, a lame is a king in the land of cripples. There's no alternative so far and we are stuck with the best that we got. Just cross our fingers and wish for the best.
@padt: I don't know what you are talking about. :P looking forward to our next lunch.
@mauriceg: had a nice chat with some interesting people last week. Noted the similarities between SBY and Obama. Both are highly intellectuals - SBY is famous for having a great well-stocked library. Every time he goes abroad, defense attaches are scrambling to get new books on politics, mil. Strategy, and various others. Yet that's their undoing, taking too much time considering the path of least resistance, don't want to step on someone's foot - both positions are not that strong, too much baggage and some things you don't want to know. Probs another generation to fix it?
Yohanes-Sulaiman
8:48am Sep 26, 2011
@asoegenie: thanks for comments. To be honest, I am also thinking his instinct will go for political-cabinet. Still, we just hope that he realize that he can't keep having this kind of nonsenses and distractions. Din Syam is very pessimistic though and hope he realizes that he better gets a zakenkabinet or we'd get hit by market.DrDez
9:41am Sep 26, 2011
Yohanes et al -Good piece again thank you..
SBY is not an intellectual - he is a lost lamb - I do not know who is behind him but she is pulling the strings and she is surrounding herself with allies, family and favours to safeguard the future...
The reshuffle will and always will be a path of least resistance (good phrase) there will be some casualties but they will have their influence maintained in other ways. While we are in a situation whereby so many people hold the strings of the president he or she cannot and will never wield authority sufficient to make the changes required to propel Indonesia forward = That of course assumes that an elected (sic) President wants to propel us forward and is not motivated by self interest and greed
I hold no great hopes for a meaningful reshuffle to actually take place after all the President did say in January and again in February he would review and make changes as required. He made non then and all we can hope for now is a sacrificial lamb or two - that has been made easy because he can fire those currently embroiled in corruption and maintain some of the others on the basis of continuity ...
I will be dead before you see a President that has at the forefront of his or her mind Indonesia.
Yohanes-Sulaiman
10:26am Sep 26, 2011
@DrDez: thank you for your kind comment. I think though, that SBY simply proves that intellectuals do not necessarily make great prez. SBY is lacking the guts, the thing that you need to say enough is enough and let's work. Self interests play a huge role but like Suharto proved, you could be a self-interested person that focused on fattening your kids with graft and yet at the same time raising overall standard of living respectably.
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