Indonesian Politics: Advice for the Unknown Candidate

The ending of this article was changed. The original ending was giving a tongue-in-cheek advice, telling the candidate either to marry an actress or to get a star part in a  soap, since it would have been the best way to increase one's exposure to the soap-loving community of Indonesia.

Instead, in this ending, it seemed to tell the candidate to marry an actress or to star in a soap should his bid fail to get traction.

Probably just a minor sticking point.

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Indonesian Politics: Advice for the Unknown Candidate
Yohanes Sulaiman | November 05, 2011

With President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono bleeding support in a rash of recent public opinion surveys, it’s no surprise that the political sharks smell blood and are circling for opportunity.

Proposing oneself as a credible alternative candidate, even as early as this year, is very tempting, given that the movement to bring down Yudhoyono seems to be gaining steam lately thanks to the president’s latest blunders.

The most significant of these, of course, is the recent reshuffling of the cabinet. While the market breathed a sigh of relief with the reappointment of highly respected Finance Minister Agus Martowardojo, there were complaints that Yudhoyono did not take corruption seriously, given the reappointment of several ministers that are currently embroiled in scandals.

Eyebrows were also raised over Yudhoyono’s pick of Jero Wacik as the new energy minister, which is seen as a way to ensure that the money from Indonesia’s lucrative energy sector will remain controlled by the Democratic Party. Disappointment at seeing another opportunity wasted adds momentum to a movement to undermine the administration.

Another significant test for the administration hinges on the success of the upcoming Southeast Asian Games, which have been riddled with delays and procurement scandals.

A political insider recently told me that many believe 2012 is a critical year. If Yudhoyono can weather the political storm in the coming year, he will be able to finish his term in 2014. Otherwise, an impeachment is looming on the horizon.

Not surprisingly, anyone with any political ambition is coming out of the woodwork to declare their electability. This explains the recent proliferation of surveys preemptively declaring the winner of the next presidential election.

The Indonesian Voting Network (JSI) put Megawati Sukarnoputri in first place, with 24 percent support, far ahead of Gen. Prabowo Subianto, her former running mate, with 18 percent. Aside from Aburizal Bakrie, who took third place in the survey with a respectable showing of 14 percent, the rest of the field is littered with potential candidates showing support ratings of less than 5 percent.

In another survey, Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicate showed Prabowo the clear winner with 28 percent support, far ahead of Constitutional Court Justice Mahfud MD at 11 percent. While former Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani managed to get 7.4 percent, just ahead of Bakrie’s 6.8 percent, the surprising loser in the survey was Megawati at less than 1 percent.

In a Reform Institute poll, Bakrie was the clear winner with 14 percent. Prabowo placed second with a respectable 9 percent, followed by former Vice President Jusuf Kalla at 7 percent.

The three vastly differing results bring into question the reliability of these surveys. How did three surveys done at almost the same time manage to place different winners with vastly different percentage results?

The knee-jerk answer to this question is that the surveys were sponsored by interested parties that wanted to ensure their names would be on top.

Such an answer, however, ignores one less obvious, and yet very important take-home point of these surveys — that the clear winner of the next presidential election is “Don’t Know,” with a support rating of 30 percent.

In fact, choosing Indonesia’s next president is more of a Jakarta parlor game.

At this point, so far removed from the 2014 election, the majority of the public simply has not made a choice concerning the next election.

They simply have more pressing issues to pursue in their daily lives, and have very little interest (or most likely, they are politically apathetic) in discussing something that will not take place for another three years. Faced with a buffet of names, most of whom they don’t even recognize, they simply chose the most familiar names on the menu or shrugged and expressed the fact that they had no idea whom they would choose.

This also explains the result of the survey by the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI). While the LSI was correct in stressing that there is very low trust in young politicians in Indonesia, the reason is simply the fact that people have very low trust in politicians in general thanks to a succession of scandals.

Therefore, here’s some assurance for anybody with a shred of presidential aspiration out there: The field is still wide open. Ignore the results of these surveys and go for it.

That said, the paradox is that a successful campaign will require lots and lots of money, and unfortunately the wealthy backers will not open their wallets until they know the sure winner.

If the election season draws nearer and you’re not among the top three candidates, don’t despair. If past campaigns are any indication, there are still options for a candidate with a limited budget to get a star part in a popular TV soap or marry a popular actress.

As the surveys indicate, nothing is yet set in stone.